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Veteran Contributor
DismalScience
Posts: 96
Registered: ‎05-30-2012
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Accepted Solution

Pre-report goals

This is a relatively important report and everybody needs to reevalutate their goals.   If you are nervous about the report you might be carrying too much risk.   While maximizing short term profit might be the goal of the younger set some of us older guys might look at how to lock in the asset appreciation we have benefitted from the last couple years.   The markets at these level are fraught with danger and I have found that being a contrarian has been helpful in the past.   It is easy to be bulled up i. e. ten foot tall and bullet proof.

 

I think too much is made of being right the market or wrong the market.  You need to be comfortable the market from your own personal standpoint and goals.

 

I am relatively current on my marketing and have some long term sales made.   If the report is bullish then the asset appreciation gravy train rolls on.  If the market is bearish then cash in the hedge account.   I will sleep good Wednesday and Thursday.

 

I will qualify my remarks by saying we had a record crop this year and I have time to type as I stare out the window at water puddles in the yard.  It is easier to make decisions when you have production.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Pre-report goals

Very good post.....The phrase, "Be happy in your own skin.".......comes to mind.   

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,664
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Pre-report goals

I know this borders on sacrilege with many, but even if I knew the report`s content I still wouldn`t be sure of the direction of the market thereafter, a bearish report may print the harvest low. Reports are like getting waterboarded, the suspected terrorist that was waterboarded 180 times, after about the 100th time you`d think he`d be saying "you`re not really gonna drown me, are you?".    I`ll tell you the direction of the market regardless of the report, beans limit up(cause I`m pretty much out of them) corn sideways and down(I still own more than half of mine)   You`re all welcome, now go make some money :smileyhappy:

Don`t redistribute my wealth, redistribute my work ethic.
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,333
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Pre-report goals

gotta define your goals and position first..........

 

low debt no debt all gravy............first foundation with debt to service, gravy or otherwise..........highly leveraged with no equity just turning and burning...........

 

and then

 

did you raise a physical or paper crop...........

 

..............................................

 

I don't see corn dropping more than 50 maybe 75 cents, if at all............which means a fall price around $7..........and physical is already commanding a premium in most areas............guys ND is not the new IA, sorry, corn crop isnt there..........on a side note, if I am in one of those super duper great crop areas, I would be figuring out a way to ship it south cheap, there will be opportunities.........also, it appears SA is getting backed into a corner with its corn crop planting, so much so they may switch even more to soya...........

 

Soya..........with current demand we have to see a 2.0 bu jump tomorrow on more acres...........to keep things stable..........IMO its not there.........a lot is already built into the soya price right now..........if we dont see it we get a bump.........the time protect fall price was several weeks ago, no need to risk it now...........and physical, well pretty much the same comments on soya as above on corn..........as for SA, maybe more acres, but production is far from known, and we know they have some major infastructure issues, I think China sees this as well thus not real bearish..........also oilseed complex in general is razor thin on supply..........

 

SO IMO, just not a lot of downside risk here............at least not enough to get in front of this report............either way for that matter..........IMO its a bullish set of numbers..........but then again I do have my hands and feet outside the ride........

 

Good luck..........

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,250
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Pre-report goals

If the report is going to affect your marketing situation then you're more or less using a short range view and have pending sales targets. If your strategy is based on longer term trends then the report is probably inconsequential at best. Short term turmoil is not necessarily a factor. Longer term trends are the guide until it's time to convert opportunity to $$$.

 

Activity around reports is more entertainment at this point in the marketing year. 

Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 687
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Pre-report goals

MT......I would really like to hear your ideas on "shipping it south cheap" and how to do it....

 

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 419
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
0

Re: Pre-report goals

Like I said before I hope the report is bearish cause there will be more upside for next summer. I am holding out for the long run no matter what the report says.
Contributor
winger667304
Posts: 28
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: Pre-report goals "once again"

Here we go again, nervously waiting for the USDA to bestow it's wisom. This market has been taking turns being in control and hopefully tomorrow it is the bulls turn. I am having trouble understanding how we can get to an over 11 corn crop when the best corn growing areas in the U.S. where producing less that 50% of normal. The last report had nice bullish surprise so I guess anything is possible. One thing for sure will be pullling the trigger on the 2011 corn if I get a bounce. I am thinking 2 years worth of corn along with this years beans and wheat  is too much on the table in this enviroment. Might have to read up on buying some protection.