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Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Predicting crop totals....things that USDA should know.

Things you need to know when predicting what your crops are going to yield.

 

1. Planting date........have to have it planted timely or EXPECT lower yields.

2. Planting conditions......If the seeds don't come up, there won't be anything to harvest.  If you don't have a stand, EXPECT lower yields. 

3.The daily weather.....Not enough rain in many places....Too much rain for a time in other places....Too cool for a late crop to catch up......Too hot at the wrong times. If any of this stuff happens, EXPECT lower yields.

4. Future weather.......See #3  plus add in ending the growing season before the crops are mature, EXPECT lower yields.

5. Almost every farmer can't predict what his own fields are going to yield,  let alone everyone else's. 

6. Please feel free to add your own............................

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,351
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Predicting crop totals....things that USDA should know.

RT, you are absolutely correct in saying no one knows what their yields will be. However, speaking for myself, I've got a few acres of corn that will be better than I was planning, and a few that won't be as good as I was hoping. 100% of my milo acres will be above my APH as well as above an average crop. In fact, if my milo isn't near record on each farm, I'll be disappointed. This is all assuming we receive no late season hail or an early frost.

I asked this question a few weeks back but didn't receive a single reply so I'll ask again. My area of Central Kansas (milo capitol of the world) will undoubtedly have an abundance of milo. Will these bushels relieve any pressure from the lost corn bushels? We don't have a lot, but we've got a few E plants that use milo instead of corn. Also, several Kansas feeders will be feeding milo in replace of corn. Just asking.
Advisor
idalivered
Posts: 1,342
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Predicting crop totals....things that USDA should know.

shagy, i'd guess youare right about milo. It will all add to total feed grain supply. I was just wondering about the distillers grain left from milo/ethanol production? just a side issue but is it as good of feed as corn/ddgs??? 

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,134
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Predicting crop totals....things that USDA should know.

RT- All thats left to throw in is the Kitchen Sink - Shag - I don't know jack about Milo and feeding it but would think it would be what they can buy cheapest - Milo verus corn price ? And availablity of the two .Just my Guess . BTW ----- Aren't you up alittle early ?
Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,351
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Predicting crop totals....things that USDA should know.

IDA, local E plants have a fleet of about 25 trucks hauling milo DDG constantly and several other farmer/feeders that do their own trucking. I'm not a cow man but with the tonnage being delivered, it would have to contain a feedstock value similar to feeding rolled or hammered milo. Last time I checked, they were paying somewhere between $0.25 - $0.50 per bushel premium over the local coops to deliver to E plant straight from the field. Only catch is moisture, 12% or under and they will accept it, 12.1% or higher and they will reject you at the scale. I've never sold them any because I was told they were cash at the scale. I generally like to let the markets recede a little before selling so I can protect my tax bracket. LOL

ECIN, just a side benefit of working a rotating shift weekly. The body has no idea when to sleep, eat, or even take a crap for that matter. ROTF. I'm sure you correct on feeding what is available, but around here were about 98%-99% milo with the remainder being filled with corn. Go just a few miles south and that starts to change rather quickly. I'm about 5 to 10 miles north of where the irrigation starts, but that's the story of my life. Living on the edge. LMAO
Senior Contributor
Husker-J
Posts: 1,596
Registered: ‎06-15-2013
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Re: Predicting crop totals....things that USDA should know.

Shaggy, around here, feedlots have nutritionists figure a 'least-cost' ration, using available feeds, to figure what to feed cattle.  Whether they blend in wheat, soy hulls, cotton hulls, ethanol by-products or whatever, they juggle the ingredients around, to see what gives the lowest cost, while keeping performance up.  I think the milo will offset at least some corn, but if others in your area, are like you, and have extra milo, but are short in corn bushels, it will probably be mostly local, as they will offset each other.

Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,351
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Predicting crop totals....things that USDA should know.

Exactly my point HJ. We won't know exactly how many final bushels we'll have for about 3 or 4 months, but locally we'll all know if we've got more or less than usual. I'm sure all feeding rations are calculated on a location dependent list of products that are available. Just because we won't have an abundance of corn in this location doesn't mean our milo crop won't be treated like corn to relieve some of the pressure placed on corn to fulfill the livestock feeding needs. Isn't this another reason to look at all crops in general not just corn to try and get a handle on our future position? IMO, to much emphasis is placed on our corn crop and not enough on other crops that could be substituted for corn to fill a void somewhere in the supply chain. Wouldn't barley and triticale also be considered as a substitute?
Senior Contributor
Longcreekfarms
Posts: 428
Registered: ‎08-07-2012
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Re: Predicting crop totals....things that USDA should know.

I'm chopping sorghum or milo right now. For years, my co-op man has told me it has 90% the nutritional value of corn. I'm not milking theses ole girls, just pulling feeder calves off of them. Between the milo, alfalfa, and a layer of corn all chopped and laid in the pit, I've never had a cow looking poor that wasn't attributed to age or disease. For a third of the cost on an acre, there is probably 30% more tonnage/acre on forage sorghum. The trucks fill up quick and so does the pit. No ethanol plants local to my area, but I love the the feed. Adding free choice rolls of alfalfa to stocker calves all winter and they are well fed animals. Healthy and full of piss and vinager :smileyhappy:
Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,351
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Predicting crop totals....things that USDA should know.

We've feed like that for years if our milo failed. If there was just a little grain in the milo, makes for some darn good feed.