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Veteran Contributor
ag678
Posts: 78
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Prevent planting math

Lucky enough to not have to worry about it but at what dollar amount do you take prevent plant today.  For example lets say you have a 180 bu average and a 75% revenue coverage.  You could take a pp check for $486 or you could mud corn in and sell the board up to your guarentee.(Assumming you haven't already sold at a lower level) and get $918 or $432 more.  If you couldn't get it planted they would take 1% per day off of your yeild so 25 days later you could get a pp check for $486 or worst case senerio get $688 or $202 more.  How many dollars more per acre is needed to take the gamble.  Is it $400, $300, or is it even worth it for $200?  Keep in mind that if your yield is terrible I think it drags down your averages, but in the above example it would be worse case meaning that although not probible it is possible to plant late and still get a respecatble yeild and maybe gain another $100-$150 over worse case.  I think my number would be around $300 an acre more so I would have to get it done by the second week of June at todays price.  If prices went lower the date would have to be moved up, and to go to the 25th day price would probably have to be about $8.

Senior Contributor
teaspoon73
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: Prevent planting math

     Since you can pp corn in the great white north already, the question is to mud beans in . lets see raining all day here and rain Sunday and coming in Monday night. . But its supposed to get into the 70's next week. I think after the cows are in the next pasture it's fishing time. Spray round up around the july 1 if you can drive through the mud?

Senior Contributor
dapper7
Posts: 264
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Prevent planting math

ag 678, with all due respect. you and i are all planted, but i dont think the dollars matter here. if the conditions are that bad that FARMERS would even consider PP, thats bad. if you cant go in a reasonable window of time, then you cant go at all. i disagree with your premise.

who you gonna believe? me or your own two eyes. groucho marx
Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 897
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
0

Re: Prevent planting math

ag678 I don't know where you are farming but in this part of the corn belt some very good farmers are calling it quits on corn and will plant some soybeans instead. With good weather forecasted this week guys around here might get a shot at planting soybeans by the end of the week. The corn crop coming out of the eastern cornbelt will be much shorter than normal so I hope we have a good year in the western corn belt. Your numbers are off, there simply wont be a corn crop in large areas of the eastern corn belt and those who are going to plant corn late will be getting a good premium from a nearby ethanol plant to do so. If you think guys this way are lazy for not planting corn I assure you they are not. This will probably go down as one of the worst planting seasons in history for this region. As I have said before I don't think the market is doing its job at this time, why plant a crop and take the risk knowing yields wont be average to say the least for less money than your insurance will pay you?

Senior Contributor
rawhide
Posts: 1,302
Registered: ‎01-30-2011
0

Re: Prevent planting math

from what i saw today from s.e.indiana to n.e. indiana to central indiana and back you can do the math and then ride the jet-ski out to check if you can plant

Advisor
idalivered
Posts: 1,291
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Prevent planting math

I have not had a crop insurance claim since 1993 and hopefully won't this year.( did collect on some GRIP once, but that was like winning the powerball) I understand your sentiments about attempting to plant, but after a certain point every bushel or dollar you raise is just a a bushel for fed crop not the insured. The enterprise unit option would greatly influence planting decisions. If i understand correctly you'd have to PP every farm one operates in that county. If you get partially planted are you screwing yourself? the other thing is no matter when I planted, I'd darn sure report that I had planted by the cutoff day. I was told by the scale guy at the coop that (in '93) cheating was rampant. guys were "shuffling bushels" from one farrm to another to maximize a loss here and there. If one is predisposed to that sort of thing, then by all means try to plant someting. I'm sure the farmer's dealing with this dilemna have a king sized belly ache.

Senior Contributor
clayton58
Posts: 342
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Prevent planting math

the other thing is no matter when I planted, I'd darn sure report that I had planted by the cutoff day. I was told by the scale guy at the coop that (in '93) cheating was rampant. guys were "shuffling bushels" from one farrm to another to maximize a loss here and there. If one is predisposed to that sort of thing, then by all means try to plant someting. 

 

Ida, Please tell me your not advocating insurance fraud.

Advisor
time:thetippingpoint
Posts: 571
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: Prevent planting math

A REAL FARM SOMEWHERE IN OHIO  5/27/2011
  INITIALPP INS  
Business Plan - February 2011CORNCORN BEANS
 ACRES =603.1  658.1
      
 EQUIPMENT PRIN/INT/RENT =$44.08$44.08 $35.08
 FIXED ASSET PRIN/INT/RENT=$22.39$22.39 $22.39
 EQUIPMENT DEVALUED =$8.72$8.72 $8.72
      
 LAND PRIN/INT/RENT COST =$226.54$226.54 $206.54
      
 SEED COSTS =$90.67$0.00 $49.61
 FERTILIZER COSTS =$114.25$0.00 $36.85
 CHEMICAL COSTS =$30.11$30.11 $15.25
 CROP INSURANCE =$21.48$21.48 $16.04
      
 OVERHEAD COSTS =$169.29$90.00 $169.29
      
 MINUS FSA DIRECT PAY =($28.71)($28.71) ($13.41)
      
 TOTAL COST/ACRE =$698.82$414.61 $546.36
      
 DELAYED PLANTING YIELD140140 40
      
 COST PER BUSHEL$4.99$2.96 $13.66
      
  CornINS PP Beans
 PRICE 6/1=$6.34$6.01 $13.49
 APH YIELD FOR INSURANCE=174174 46
 REV % INSURED=80%60% 80%
 INSURED REV PER ACRE=$836.59$501.96 $496.43
      
 GROSS CROP REV/ACRE=$887.60none $539.60
 GROSS INS REV/ACRE=none$501.96 $0.00
 TOTAL REV/ACRE=$887.60$501.96 $539.60
      
 TOTAL COST/ACRE=$698.82$414.61 $546.36
      
 PROFIT PER ACRE =$188.78$87.35 ($6.76)
      
 GROSS $ FROM CROP=$535,312$0 $355,111
 GROSS $ FROM INSURE=$0$302,729 $0
      
 GROSS EXPENSE (Line24xLine4)=$421,458$250,051 $359,560
  $113,853$52,678 ($4,449)

 

This is our best evaluation of the situation for a normal farm that has zero planted today in Ohio.

 

As you can see, and despite what all the media hype would suggest, the farm is FAR better off financially to plant corn up until June 5th (which is still 8 days away), and is still financially better off to plant corn all the way until June 17th. (losing 1% coverage per day after June 5th.)

 

While PP is nice thing to talk about...will farmers actually give away an additional $100/acre profit just to not have to raise the crop. I really don't think so. Sure, it is great coffee shop talk when there is nothing to do but express our frustration, but it is supposed to be 90 and sunny on Tuesday. NO ONE will be in the coffee shop then.

 

I think we should plant more corn on corn (even in early June GASP).

 

I have no knowledge of other areas like Ontario, or MI, just Ohio. No one in Indiana will take PP since they will all be done by June 5th IF, IF, the forecast for hot and dry is accurate. We have shifted another 60 of corn from beans for Indiana for example.

 

Of course, this is just how I read the numbers. Others will have different views.

Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 4,210
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Prevent planting, Ontario

thetippingpoint I have little info about Ontario either and I live here.

There is corn still to be planted as well as soy beans and edible beans.

There may be a move to some more edible beans for those able to handle them as that allows a little more planting time. Edibles will only absorb a small area though.

I believe our insurance deadlines allow planting corn until June 15.

Unseeded Benefits are an option but I have not crunched any numbers from those discussing it here the financial benefits are not a factor, it will be claimed only if they really have no opportunity to plant corn by June 15 and probably soys until July 1.

There are areas of heavy land and heavier rain fall amounts that have not been able to plant anything but most areas have a good portion of corn planted as well as a good start on soys.

The biggest question is probably what kind of yields can be expected from ground that was, for the most part, not fit to plant when the planters rolled? A hot dry summer, which is what the long range forecasters predicted earlier this year as well as a cooler wet spring, will be damaging to these 'mudded in fields'.

Net is we will not know the whole story for some time yet.

 

BTW I still have a small field of corn to plant and I will do that at least if I can by June 7 and take my chances with insurance on yield if necessary. The forecast is for warm and sunny next week and that is something we have not seen before this spring.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/on-137_metric_e.html

Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,329
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Prevent planting math

[ Edited ]

I agree that if it gets dry enough to run next week in the southern end of the corn belt then guys will try to get some corn in.........however you have to remember the clock is ticking for the guys up north..........and I believe ND and SD were the two states where we were supposed to get 1.5M acres............tick tock

 

take that figure and then add in all the flooding (rivers, not ponding) and you have a situation of probably 1.5-2.0M less already without even considering OH or IN.............so even if my numbers are off by a bunch, you throw in OH and IN and its still 2M less, maybe more..........and you just pointed out in your post that you expect a yield reduction, most would, and I would be willing to bet some will farm on the low input side of things knowing this, which will not help........

 

at this point, it doesn't matter..........we have acres that will not get planted...........we have acres that will get planted that will yield less............thus its a moot point..........

 

I do have one question from your table.............your inputs for PP corn seem high.........Apparently your chemical is not in the jug?.........also your equipment number is still high, you will not burn the fuel thru tillage, planting, spraying, combine, trucking........also no wear and tear..........you have a fixed asset figure, so why the equipment cost on PP...........

 

Also some took the buy up option which means they will close the gap even more............then factor in the risk of locking in a price on unplanted bushels.............also consider you really need to figure your GROSS CROP REV at the insurance level as you might not go over it, thus $836.59 minus $698.82 is $137.77............versus a PP(buy up option) of $585.61 minus $361.81 (lower equipment cost, but left chemical in there, potato patato, some will have lower PP input cost) is $223.80..............no risk and $200 plus net/acre............thats a pretty decent option when you are staring at whitecaps on corn fields..........

 

JMO.........remember everyone's situation is different............so it looks like you will be planting corn.........others might not..........