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Registered: ‎07-16-2012
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Progress reports Jul 16

What was everyone looking for on these USDA progress reports?

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Progress reports Jul 16

pretty much what was published, Steve.

unprecedented, for this generation, @ least.

Friend
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Registered: ‎07-16-2012
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Re: Progress reports Jul 16

Thanks....now if you can tell me how corn will react  to this at the open that would be great , lol Smiley Happy

Veteran Contributor
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Registered: ‎06-27-2012
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Re: Progress reports Jul 16

I read somewhere that the trade average estimate was for a 5% drop in G to EX on corn not the 9% drop shown. The 8% increase in P to VP will also garner attention along with the updated 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts of hotter and drier weather in most of the key corn growing areas. I have no real idea how low the 2012 U.S. corn crop can fall, but it may be lower than most of us can imagine.

Honored Advisor
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Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Progress reports Jul 16

At noon the report I listened to had the broker saying the traders are still in the 140 nat'l ave camp. I believe that is too high, I wonder what 120ish or less is going to do?

Veteran Advisor
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Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Progress reports Jul 16

i'm not ruling out 7b final on low end.

Steve, read CitiFarmer here and you get the idea. if yer new tradin', just be careful!!

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,785
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Progress reports Jul 16

If the traders are still in the 140ish camp, this thing has lots of legs left.   Smiley Wink

Friend
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Registered: ‎07-16-2012
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Re: Progress reports Jul 16

Thanks, not new to trading, just new to trading corn on weather like this hahah

Veteran Contributor
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Registered: ‎06-27-2012
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Re: Progress reports Jul 16

I agree that few, if any, have experience in this situation. As most are comparing this to 1988, I looked at the situation then and found someone who said Corn G to EX that year was at just 18% vs. the current figure of 31% in 2012.  The 1988 yield was 70% of 1987 so if you take 75% of last year's 147.2 yield or 110.4 bushel per acre times a 86% harvested level (equal to 1988) times 96.4 million planted acres you arrive at a 2012 production figure of just 9.150 billion bushel.  Add in 900 million of ending 9-1-2012 stocks and say 100 million of imports (allows for some Brazilian imports), you arrive at 2012/2013 supply of 10.150 billion bushel.  This is 2.570 billion bushel below the July 11th USDA demand of 12.720 billion bushel.  Add in a minimal ending stocks figure of 630 million bushel and you arrive at demand reductions needed of 3.200 billion bushel during 2012/2013.  Wheat feed use might cover 200-300 million bushel of this shortage still leaving 2.900 to 3.000 billion of demand reductions needed.

 

It is my hope that we don't see too much long-term demand destruction if this production level actually occurs. My greatest concern is a corn export embargo and I am not saying this is currently under consideration.

 

If I knew for sure, I would not be working for a living.

Senior Advisor
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Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Progress reports Jul 16

Don't forget that we had a huge carryover figure in corn in 1988.....something like 3 billion bushels I believe.   There is NO cushion like that this year. I even doubt that the USDA's ending stocks number is close to being accurate   Folks expecting this market to have a long tail may be greatly disappointed.