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Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,397
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Rain now is Immaterial

Now it's all about how much time this crop is going to have in the northern tier. The price of corn went down a few weeks ago because of the hot temps and how this was going to allow the the late planted crop to make it. Will corn go back up because much of the corn growth in the upper Midwest has stopped. I doubt it. This market is one that doesn't pay any attention to bullish news - the crop is made.

The next 10 days bringore of the same. The lows dipping down from Canada are big, isobars are spaced close. Late in the week we have another big low drop out of Canada, gets over NY and retrograde a back to the West Southwest. I can tell you right now that the advantage of the hot weather has now been lost. We are back to where we were - a late planted crop that is in jeopardy.

On an unrelated note, I've been under the weather the last few days. Thought I just had a bruise on my leg that was more painful than any bruise I remember. Yesterday morning I couldn't walk, it was just too painful. Went to the emergency room at noon. Ended up it was a bacterial infection of my skin. Condition could've been life threatening if I hadn't gone in. Even then, I was chastised for not coming in soon enough. So now I'm on bed rest for a week. This is killing me with an auction date coming up. At least I felt we were ahead on getting ready - now, maybe not so much.

Jen
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,098
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Rain now is Immaterial

Jen,

 

The futures market makes anyone crazy.  

 

Without health we have nothing so please take care of yourself

Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 201
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
0

Re: Rain now is Immaterial

Sorry to hear that you are under the weather.  I can sympathize after spending a good portion of my time in waitng rooms and doctor's offices over the past couple of years.  Take care of yourself.  Nothing is more important than your health.

 

I have to disagree that rain is immaterial from here on out.  There is a lot of yield potential sitting on the table at this time that hinges on rain to fill and finish this crop.  We have been real dry over the past month after having a lot of very beneficial rain in June.  Our corn is still grass green but another week or two with no rain will probably start trimming things back.  I suspect there are areas that are extremely dry that could still benefit from rain as well.  It might mean the difference between a poor and very poor crop but nonetheless rain would help.  As far as the cool weather goes yes it is a concern.  Especially in the late planted areas.  Keep in mind though that we have the whole month of August to go yet.  We can have a lot of warm or hot weather in August.  September too for that matter.  This crop is far from made and has some big obstacles to clear yet  there is still time for things to straighten out or get worse.  If we have anywhere near seasonal temps for August with decent rains the crop could still turn out pretty big.  I think it is a given at this point that many of the late planted crops are in trouble.  I think that is why we haven't sold off worse than we have.  If everything looked good and there weren't acres with serious issues we would be looking at a true record crop.  I hope everyone gets what they need weather wise in the coming weeks.

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,397
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: Rain now is Immaterial

Yes, I know that rain still makes a difference for a lot of acres. But without some warmer temps, for the millions of acres that are behind and now falling farther behind, it won't make a lot of difference if it gets rain or not. The corn needs cobs, not greenery. This west - east flow of the jet stream has been a factor in our weather for a while now. These low pressure systems in Canada just keep forming and doing what they've done all summer. The 6-10/8-14 day forecasts keep us cool in the upper Midwest. That takes us through the middle of August. Days are getting shorter quickly now. Normal temps are not going to get this crop done. It's that simple
Jen
Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,388
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Rain now is Immaterial

Get well Jen, always love reading your input.  I`m not incredibly bullish here, but I also wouldn`t be selling a danged thing either.  I just hope that no one had any big plans for some of this corn planted the 20th of June and beans planted on the 4th of July.

We shouldn`t have to light a candle to see the Sun.
Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 201
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
0

Re: Rain now is Immaterial

Oh, I get what you are saying alright.  I'm not hanging too many hopes on the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts.  They have been calling for above normal precip for weeks now and there has been only scattered rain.  Remember some of the permabulls were always quick to point out that you couldn't rely on those forecasts with rain a few weeks ago.  Now that there is some potentially bullish news in those forecasts  we are supposed to take them as the gospel?  Can't have it both ways folks.  Not saying we don't end up below norma temps but at this point I don't think we can rely on long range forecasts to tell us yes or no.  They are also calling for above normal precip for a lot of areas too.  We'll see.

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,397
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: Rain now is Immaterial

I don't always go by the extended forecasts, especially on weekends. I'm going by what I see. And I'm the one that's been saying they have been off, because they were. The forecasts right now look right by what I'm seeing in the upper air patterns and what the weather has done the last few weeks. I'm not having it both ways, I'm having it the way as I see it, which I think overall has been more right. I've told you when I agree with the forecast and when I don't, and why. Right now, I agree with the forecast by what I see and my own research, although I am very limited here on the farm. I prefer multiple computers on multiple sites so I can compare them together. I don't have that ability or time here. Right now, it's not that tough though. The forecasts show no major change in the jet stream. Therefore, we stay the current course. Scattered showers, no major fronts giving the whole Midwest a drink, and cooler than normal for the northern corn belt.

Jen
Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 201
Registered: ‎04-13-2013

Re: Rain now is Immaterial

Don't take offense. My comment about having it both ways wasn't so much directed at you as they were at the permabulls over on the other site. A week or two ago when things were really drying out the long range forecasts for above normal rainfall were not to be believed according to them. Tonight they are all tripping over themselves to proclaim the imminent freeze disaster the long range forecasts suggest. To me that is having it both ways. Doesn't mean it won't happen but if those forecasts were not to be believed two weeks ago why believe them now?
Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,397
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: Rain now is Immaterial

We are too far away to predict an immenent freeze. However, these cooler temps cuts the GDD that the corn needs. We need temps in the 80's - not 60s or mid 70s to push along the crop. I checked the maps again a little bit ago - still much of the same. I don't consider myself a permanent bull. But it has been irritating listening to all the bs the bears have brought out. I have never, ever heard anyone mention how much corn Maryland is going to produce. In my book, that looks like grasping at straws. But apparently the tactics are working because more are still selling this market than buying. Maybe you bears can find some nice corn fields in Alaska to take pictures of, and tell us of their record yields there too.

Jen
Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 201
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
0

Re: Rain now is Immaterial

I'm really not terribly bearish at this time but will wait a few more weeks to see how weather plays out before getting real bullish. People have been trying to kill this crop since about Feb. first it was the ongoing drought that would prevent us from raising a crop, then it was the floods that would prevent us from even getting it planted, then it was the drought again, and now it is too cool. I expect it is about time to start killing the 2014 crop isn't it?