01-20-2011 01:47 PM
China's purchasing of 500,000 tns of feed wheat from the Aussies is giving then an opportunity to buy livestock feed w/o putting even more pressure on soy and corn stocks. I believe this may be confirmation of my contention that China would like to be buying corn but made the judgment that it would be too inflammatory to global prices. This is an alternative source that's regionally plentiful at the moment given what the Aussie crop went through.
I think China will continue to buy soybeans at a steady rate. The fears that China may have pushed to hard to suppress inflation under continued high rates of development that would result in declining soy purchases will fade away in my estimation. I think the negative scenario is tied too closely to ideological desires that if the US can't escape dire consequences of Fed actions then neither can China, which promoted a gargantuan economic stimulus. Those conclusions may be proven wrong in any near or medium term - which means they are irrelevant to current market pressures.
But the damaged Aussie wheat is just going to push demand for quality wheat for noodles and breads up, meaning that the pressure on commodities is across the board.
01-21-2011 08:07 PM
I deffinatly agree in across the board,the grains are going to do a much needed job of lifting our specialty commodities! How high will they have to go to presssure potatoes,onions,surgar beets,and peanuts?
01-22-2011 07:19 PM
palouser...... I do think that up to this point we have been able to steve off the chinese from buying corn...... If we were still at the 5.00 area I think that a sale would have occurred by now....... I do think that they would buy corn as soon as the numbers are right...... Most likely when the market is asleep....... In the meantime I look for them to pickoff stuff like the aussie wheat to hold them over until they can buy corn cheap enough...... We will see..... It is kind of a game of chicken...... Can the world take production up or will china blink and be forced to buy?...... p-oed