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Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,487
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Really???

http://www.agweb.com/article/unwanted-piles-of-corn-soy-spur-most-bearish-crop-outlook-ever-naa-bloo...

 

Another one of those "push the market" articles whick takes half truth to the extreme.  But that is what you get when we are in a "clear it out" mood...

 

There is inventory in Iowa and southern Minn.....  but this article pictures piles of soybeans outside....???

 

And claims producers are not selling...  We can listen to the talk, but the market does not go down unless grain is being sold.  In fact more grain is for sale than is being bought...... that is what actually changes the market price... even if it is on a global basis...

 

I market to end users..... Ours buyers have bought up usage well into spring.... somebody sold it....

 

wow elcheapo, ya got me typing and thinking in your style.  Smiley Very Happy

 

enjoy it while you can.... the lower this goes the sooner it is over..

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,768
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Really???

Sw, if you want my medication list to add to yours just pm me !!

 

I noted nobody signed the "new article" written.......i sure would not have.

 

Well lets see...first, who would leave beans on the ground ?  have those bean been tarped before the picture taken ?

 

interesting, how 70 to 80% of the crop has not been priced....and how the elevator has orders for 2 million bushels of

 

grain....but farmers have not sold....ah could it be that they are not paying up....if you need to fill a contract, and you don't

 

have it, and they will not sell....maybe you need to raise your bid price ????  remember the seller and buyer must

 

"agree" on a price, and looks like there is a disagreement.

 

Interesting on the wheat....actually, the truth is we are only 1 or 2 % behind the projected usda wheat exports....Dang I wished

 

I could figure out how to do a hot link on this machine to prove that....granted beans and corn behind.

 

read something tonight tho that bothered me....first one report saying land values thought to loose 13%.  Also, we are

 

at levels seen in the early 1980's of farmer indebtment vs farm income......a demostration of how inputs have not come

 

as much as farm income (or commodity prices)...article i don't think quite nailed that down tho.

 

so basicly we are "worse off" about the same level as the early 80's.

 

A question....what happens if the news is the same as the market projects tomarrow.....do we go up...to steal a phrase

 

from our market writting friends "it has been factored in the market"....really, can this report be anything but bullish ???

 

medication time !!!

 

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,468
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Really???

Those small piles of soybeans in the picture look like they came from my farm.........when I accidently left the hopper wagon doors open when I unloaded the combine.    

Advisor
Posts: 9,135
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
0

Re: Really???

Remember, there are two ways for the market to buy grain. One is flat price, the other is basis, primarily from commercial storage. And we're coming off two years where it was easy to keep corn through the winter, but not this year.

 

I don't have any reason to depart from the consensus going into the report. The big crop didn't come from here but folks in the west could say the same last year.

 

Should be some nice "supplemental payments" hitting accounts in December.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 555
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Really???

Many years ago my father had a young farmer custom combing his beans who accidentally left his unloading auger on for one full round.   Two half mile ribbons of beans on the ground was not a pretty sight.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,244
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Really???

Questions...

 

#1,  shouldn't there be grain in storage just 3 months after harvest started? 

 

       Isn't the livestock and commercial users a 24/7/365 deal?

 

#2, If the grain is unwanted, what's the deal with the 2 million bu order?

 

      I just checked and northern Iowa and southern Minn elevators have posted bids, must be wanted by someone.

 

      If they really wanted it just pop the bid 20¢, Ray J /Cargill did that a week ago for one day and found 400,000 bu in their parking lot       clamering to get on the scales. 

 

#3,  One million bu is approx two unit train loads, how many unit trains have already gone east that hadn't done that last year? 

 

#4,  markets only seem to turn when every one/thing/news is one sided. Just starting to get there.my opinion is we haven't been                 there long enough.

 

#5,  contrary to popular opinion there are still a significant number of farmers in the black.

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,487
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Really???

Just talked to our buyer in cattle feeding.  He says they are being run over by corn wanting to be sold.  Mostly sold to make room for anticipated wheat.  So there is some room in May and June..  Not buying wheat or milo.. why should they...  Large amounts of corn  are being sold......and have been for some time... That's what the market says when I read it.

 

 

 

 

Highlighted
Advisor
Posts: 290
Registered: ‎01-16-2013

Re: Really???

[ Edited ]

I bailed on 40% of my soybean crop when it hit $ 9.15.   Sold everything on DP.   Haven't sold any corn.  I think this USDA number was intended for one purpose...they are worried about the collapse of the farm sector, especially outside the seed-chem-Fert  sector....  Those dickwads need to join the party.   At some point, it is going to become real clear that there is a Depression going on in ag.   I honestly don't see how oour local JD Dealer keeps the doors open...and I sure as hell wouldn't want to be toting the note on that floorplan of Combines, 4WD, 24 row planters, cornheads, platforms, air seeders and all the rest.   If you want to get real, better adjust your financial statement at your bank to reflect a 60% reduction of that iron you're using as collatteral.    

 

That market pop today was overdone if yiu simply look at the miniscule change they made in the numbers.   Pure knee jerk....it will all evaporate quickly.

 

You can ignore reality - fight reality - and whether or not you wish to face reality...reality always wins.    It's about to get real.

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 37
Registered: ‎09-27-2010
0

Re: Really???

[ Edited ]

I have been to 5 farm sales this year with big, expensive iron. I haven't seen things sell for the discounts that you are proposing. Most stuff is off 10-15 percent. It should be. It's a year older.

Advisor
Posts: 290
Registered: ‎01-16-2013
0

Re: Really???

You're referring to farm sales where generally area farmers pay more than they should for local equipment.   I'm talking about equipment on dealer lots and through liquidation sales.    Call any machinery jockey and ask them what they would pay you for your equipment line in cash...no trade in BS.