03-31-2011 01:34 PM
Ending stocks is the be all and end all in this report - as I think we all suspected. It confirmed that rationing has not taken place as COF and ethanol production margins and production had already indicated.
It really doesn't matter about wheat numbers as it is basically feed and will be carried by the corn situation. On the other hand, the squeeze between southern drought and northern wetness makes acres of quality wheat suspect. As I write there is a powerful stream of moisture and cold going over my head and headed there, and predicted to continue.
The surprise regarding cotton acres may have it's basis in the cost of harvesting machinery vs getting in and out. Cotton farmers were burned by low prices and sold machinery. Getting back in and having the run last only one year may be hard for farmers already burned by the fluctuations the last few years. I base this on comments by a friend quite familiar with the situation in the delta area.
The big area of concern is trend yields in corn and possible Chinese demand in the future. We could all be on tenter hooks for a long time. While the future is crucial speculation the ending stocks are probably dialed in enough that it is a baseline for planning - or speculating.
03-31-2011 02:02 PM - edited 03-31-2011 02:08 PM
Ave Trade Guess: 13.728
Trade Range: 13.0 - 14.31
2010 USDA Final: 13.698
03-31-2011 02:59 PM
That suprised me also. They must have thought that rally in Feb bought enough acres, but with the weather we are having in the Red River Valley, I dont see it being higher at all. Lower is my guess. Filling sandbags is going on now and more rain/snow for this wknd doesnt bode well.
03-31-2011 07:57 PM
I really don't know about spring planting intentions. In the north the moisture is there. In areas that are borderline summer fallow, like eastern Montana or Dakotas there may be recropping. Then there are the acres that were 'prevent plant' from last year. Just guessing. But if it is as wet as I've heard, some areas that were prevent plant last year in the north due to rain are set up to see it again with current patterns.