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Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 410
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
0

Report verses basis

Confusing.  Report says more corn, less soybeans.  Yet, basis or the last few weeks have improved much more for corn than beans.  Corn under loan is at a record low for this time of year and beans are running much closed to trend under loan, though still very light for big years. 

Makes corn buyers look kinda wrong; pushing basis when they didn't need to.  Good to know it isn't just farmers that are wrong all the time.

Some of us guys that farm all over the country might have to post guards on our bean fields.  Might show up to combine, and someone might have beat you to them! 

VRbuck looks to close the gap at the next turn.  Was that 20 cash or on the board? 

 

Whoever said life is better than fiction got it right.  Past the popcorn and enjoy the show.  I have NO idea how this one ends.

So. IA
Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 678
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Report verses basis

851 myn bushels is still very, very tight

 

last year was 1.1 byn

 

just because corn is tight does not have to mean that futures go to the moon......folks are coming to realize that a lot of last year's price action was about QE and folks wanting to be in commodities....not the same situation this year, plus world wheat and corn supply is not a disaster...basis has to do the work this year....

 

 

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,953
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Report verses basis

For those with corn in the bins it might be a good time to NOT check markets for 5 days.

 

Before this is over we may see futures prices in Chitown and cash price that actually buys corn in the country this summer in two entirely different worlds. (Translate= record + basis)

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,525
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Report verses basis

Jec22,

 

Keep in mind that the producer is still the only one who has an assesment of the old crop supply based on reality.  All else is guess work based on the "law of averages" or "trends".  

Basis will be fun to watch.  And if you got a load or two left to sell from the "empty bin" there will be holes to fill..

sw
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,953
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Report verses basis

This morning the local price is 15 over July for May, June, and July No carry in the market.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,175
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Report verses basis

So, what about the report that commodity contracts volume was down 40% year on year in March? Do you have hard info that indicates that the ever elusive QE has made its way into grain? 

Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,784
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Report verses basis

Ray what is your basis currently on old corn?

Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 678
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Report verses basis

Don....our best bid is for July delivery at +35N

Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,784
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Report verses basis

Wow!  That's pretty strong! +15 tonight at gold eagle.

 

Thanks!

Advisor
idalivered
Posts: 1,277
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Report verses basis

don, +15 at ncc. incredible, but price below 6 after yesterday's drop. conventional thinking has always been that farmers will sell their remainder when they see their crop prospects. I'm wondering if this year, farmer s are so well capitalized ; ) that they might just hang onto the last portion of their crops. these soy prices will keep cas flow going for many well into 2013 with any kind of soybean crop. Just my thought from the planter seat, tho.