01-18-2013 12:50 AM
Maybe I missed something but, India importing soy? They are usually an exporter of soy. Not big. Maybe they are ramping up soy crushing for oil" They don't feed much meat as the vast majority are vegetarian. Goats or chickens are popular among Muslims and the 'Hindu 'warrior' class.
IGC is a good source for global production and consumption. They are usually conservative but follow the trends and are often a bit ahead of the USDA on negative production trends. But for those who criticize official figures I've yet to see a recommendation of a more reliable and consistent private estimate. I say put your evidence where your mouth is.
After the serious drop in global wheat production an increase of 2 MMT over last year mean there are still problems - and there are.
If prices are limit down in feeders and the herd is the smallest since the late 50's then the pipeline may be collapsing. Wheat grazing sounds almost nonexistent and the cold snap is likely to have caused even more damage to wheat. Dry wheat is more susceptible to cold.
01-18-2013 03:14 AM
I will add one more comment to your wheat condition Palouser. Jan. 16 in Central Kansas the frost started to come out of the ground. Might not seem like much of an issue, but our long range forecasts has everyday from here thru Feb. 10 with daily highs between 47F-55F. If this wheat that has been hanging on starts to break dormancy and we get a late winter cold snap, it very well could be game over in this area. Very few acres are even worth talking about around here, but we have a few decent looking fields all things considered. Virtually 0 grazed acres, the few that tried to graze a little probably had all cattle removed within 10 days to 2 weeks. The crop just isn't there. If I get some time Friday, I'll try to take a few photo's and post some pics later in the day.
01-18-2013 10:09 AM
That last paragraph is possible grain pipeline issues. I have been a bit concerned about basis on corn shrinking back locally for feb/mar and not much priced into apr/may. Both wdg plants and feeders are positioning similarly.
But I guess that is to be expected. I think both sides of the feeding picture have some concerned----------supply of feeder calves and feed considering the way wheat looks.
I been watching some HRW planted behind corn in irrigation. Being grazed and intended to be grazed out ahead of beans.(with the option of wheat harvest if prices jump enough------then DC beans)----------- The wheat is not holding up well-------not growing back like it normally would-------- cattle are not going to get near the time from it they normally would.
If we see meat supply get short this summer. Will usda be concerned or will they chear the change in the US diet????????
01-18-2013 10:17 AM
My personal opinion is there will be ample meat supplies through this summer because of cold storage, and the push to get cows off nonexistent pastures the last few years. Slaughter has increased up until maybe lately. When prices might go up is another story but if it's very much the good cuts will last awhile or eventually be ground into hamburger as people maintain fast food alternatives.
01-18-2013 10:39 AM
Pal's right. We'll have more than enough beef this summer because of the amount of cow slaughter we'll more than likely see. There are guys around here claiming to have made more money on heifers that turned up open than on the ones that got bred this past summer. We might have killed most of the cows down south within the past two years, but we still have plenty to kill up north now that we've got drug into the middle of the drought as well. The real beating occurs if the drought continues. Guys wanting to wean calves at 300-350 pounds will give those things away if corn is in the 8+ range this summer because there won't be many options other than placing them in the feedlot. Then, they'll give their cows away much like what happened a couple of years ago down south.
01-18-2013 11:33 AM
Thanks for the corrections and the input opinions.
Gored your right, it is hard to see the big picture from down here, where it has actually been about 4-5 years of liquidation. We cleaned the ranches in eastern colorado first about 4 yrs ago. Then except for 2010 we just kept liquidating a new area every year, with the peak being in texas.
We have spent a lot of diesel fuel moving hay and cows the last 5 yrs--------------- either to new homes or the kill floor. In a way it would be nice to see the cow kill numbers go down, if it was from wet weather.