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Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,633
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

Jim Florez say technically everything is leaning too far bearish which will lead to a nice bounce in the 1st part of the yr.  Andy S said China is more like "170" instead of the "190" reported by USDA and Chinese, also look for 200 mil bu bump in feed usage in Jan report.  Prices need to be higher to get the acres.  In my little world, it`s drier than talcum powder on a cracker, can`t recall seeing it this dry.  Needless to say I think a guy can ride this out until we see the ins guarantees in Mar.  JMHO 

Don`t redistribute my wealth, redistribute my work ethic.
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Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,329
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

[ Edited ]

spot on observations...........the balance sheets have some lofty corn and soya estimates that are already in jeopardy, I think marketeye even showed us some SA numbers on soya that have been marked down to 71ish, Friday's report had 75ish.........China is a wild card on production, the USDA can't even get it right here on the home turf, you think a China estimate is any better...........

 

as for demand as a whole, this whole exports are soft thing..........well just look below, updated sales for the week, soya look soft, BUT as I stated earlier they are actually doing quite well when you look at target..........I think the USDA is banking on traditional seasonal patterns to make the trend, but this could be the year when we see sales throughout because of this wait and see attitude............

 

as for acres, you are correct, hard to get more at current levels.........not to mention if commodities continue to sink, you can almost gaurantee that inputs will be cut.........that can lead to lower yields.........again its all about ROI, the inputs have to pay for themselves and some might just try and sneak by with a few less units............

 

as for dry...........profile in some areas is plum tapped........and not talking a few feet, talking 5, 6, 7 foot down is bone dry.........if we set up into a similar pattern as last year, well we will see I guess............

 

IMO the balance sheets and expectations do not line up...........on the world balance sheet corn and soya both fell.........which tells me that demand is still very much alive............

 

corn held pretty well yesterday, so did wheat..........it may not last, but it was pretty impressive..........

 

 currentpreviousactualprojecteddifference
 yearyear%%%
 salessalesof previousof previousof previous
wheat67410087200077.30504587752.305045872
corn89910092660097.032160598710.03216059
soya810300122720066.0283572488-21.97164276
Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,633
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

Considering that the funds have been bailing on long positions corn has held up rather well.  A FC Stone guy spoke at a elevator meeting and they have "95 mil acre corn" pegged in for `12.  That will be hard to get, some would have to go to the 4th yr of CoC and CoC has been a dud.  CRP acres-that isn`t the best land and with it dry a big gamble to go into corn. I hadn`t seen any `gas` go on corn stalks this fall. 

Don`t redistribute my wealth, redistribute my work ethic.
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nwobcw
Posts: 1,704
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

   Not that I am a big corn user by any stretch of the imagination and don't affect the market 1 iota:  The years I don't raise corn I buy a year's supply during harvest lows.  I haven't bought any besides what I use on a hand to mouth basis.  I presume other feeders are doing the same.  Notice I said presume, not assume. Ha

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idalivered
Posts: 1,291
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

BA, You haven't seen any "gas" go on cornstalks this fall? Coc a  dud? You don't live that far from me, but out my back door alot of corn ground is going back to corn. Some large operations here are 80% or more corn. Anyhow I wonder how much of our recent decline is attributed to the MF global debacle. A huge no. had there accounts frozen (temporarily) and not completely recovered ,yet. That would force alot of people, businesses, and coops to clear their trade account and start over. Not a quick, easy, or cheap process, if you have part of your margins still tied up. Many lenders would be rluctant to fully fund a SECOND trade account..

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jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,123
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

BA I think everybody around here is gonna go COC.  I'll bet MIke is already outa some corn numbers the way folks have fertilized for next years crop.  ANd I am still amazed at the amount of tiliing that got done.

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sw363535
Posts: 4,646
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

Ba,
It is an election year following a bad crop in wheat & corn.(beans??- probably down)
Southern(i70 south) users are looking for wht now. Corn is now short @ feedlots for spring use. But the odds are there will be a surplus of corn, or whatever we can call corn, at usda till the Dec report. It has happened before. And CHICAGO politics doesn't care how obvious it is.
I hate those reports. 90% of us listen. 50% get hurt every time. They r always inaccurate. Always will b corrected in future. Usda-- A cheap political tool. But not cheap for taxpayer.
sw
Senior Contributor
Mike M2692830
Posts: 220
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
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Re: Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

Very close Jr. But I have saved your favorite 2 numbers just for you..Merry Christmas....MikeM

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BA Deere
Posts: 8,633
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

Hello NCIA neighbors.  Yes big shots seem to be in a near continious corn rotation(oxymoron) in my area I`ve only seen gas on bean stubble.  I hear the big shot by Britt with the crop ins problems is renting land away from young tigers @ $500/a the only prayer he has is with corn.  Elevator managers say CoC wasn`t good, Francis Childs and Herman Warsaw made it work, #450 of N might have a little to do with their success with CoC.  I really think that before acres are locked in at least $6 for fall needs to be there for 95m/a. According to the FC Stone guy, world awash in wheat and alot of feeding.  Be Well Everyone.

Don`t redistribute my wealth, redistribute my work ethic.
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jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,123
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Running of the Bulls on US Farm Report

Hadn't heard about the crop ins. problem! 

 

But is this the big one soputh of britt or north of britt?  There sure are a lot of BTO's Just remeber I am the biggest BTO dairy guy around here! LOL