07-17-2014 01:08 PM
The missle that shot down the passenger plane over Ukraine at 33,000' was certainly not a shoulder fired model. And only Russia was in the position to supply and deliver the technology of multiple vehicle launch systems, if they didn't launch it themselves.
The question for the market place is whether the magnitude of this incident is great enough to rally around Ukraine if they decide to block transport and shipment of Russian wheat from Ukranian ports. Not sure how it has been working though I'm under the impression that Russia was still shipping grain through Ukraine. Would certainly like confirmation of this.
07-17-2014 04:06 PM - edited 07-17-2014 05:42 PM
07-17-2014 05:32 PM
It's a tragedy. War always has unforseen consequences. Shooting down big planes was a very stupid idea but has been gotten away with. The American cruiser Vincennes shot down an Iranian airliner under similar circumstances using older technology. It was a very big mistake that shouldn't have happened. Putin is trying his hand at modern warfare and is learning the many pitfalls. So far his only base hit was Crimea. It's going to be an incredibly expensive base hit in the end and will give him almost no advantage for the trouble. So far he's losing the game.
I won't even attempt to catalog the expenses and lack of accomplishments in our latest wars, regardless of what some may think about the reasons for them.
07-17-2014 05:58 PM
07-17-2014 06:27 PM
Actually, the Ukrainians have talken back most of eastern Ukraine. They have some tough nuts to crack to retake some cities but I believe it will be inevitable. Putin is still looking for a good excuse to 'save' the rebels and their territory but pinpoint photography by satellites has unveiled attempts at letting heavy weapons cross and shown his words to be false and making him lose face under international scrutiny. Undisciplined rebels and advisors may have led to a mistaken gamble to convince the government to halt Ukrainian army advances. Putins weakness is oligarchs are relatively easy to target for sanctions - and they are his friends. Putin wants to go down in history but his buddies want to make money. His little game in Ukraine is making that difficult.
Putin's ace-in-the-hole is NG. But restricting the flow of NG also loses money and makes him look cruel. He's really in a no win situation in the long run. It's probably only a matter of time before US intelligence reveals the tracking evidence of the missle that struck the plane. Meanwhile they will let him stew in his own juices. He doesn't have many options that don't isolate Russia's economy further. Make life for Russian citizens over 'principle' and he'll be dumped. It's the Russian way.
07-17-2014 06:28 PM
07-17-2014 06:43 PM