05-06-2013 09:00 AM
There are essentially three parts to the forecast. FIRST the rains this week. THEN the cold air mass... Then SIGNIFICANT warming.
The rains this week will be from interstate 70 southward.. good coverage of 1-2"... MN WIO ND SD NEB IA will MISS most of these rains
PART 2 -- strong cold front moves through the Plains and Midwest MAY 10-11.. temperatures will turn fairly cold for the middle of MAY but nothinbg liek we have seen over the past 3-4 weeks
PART 3 begins late in the 6-10 day. The European model shows a major warm up starting MAY 13 over the Plains and spreading east into all the Midwest MAY 14-15. The European model has MAX temps reaching 90 degrees over eastern MT western ND western SD eastern WY MAY 13 and 90 degrees over NEB and all of SD MAY 15. This matches up closely with the warm pattern indication being given off by the MJO which moves into PHASE 4 and 5 ... which in MAY correlates to warm / dry pattern for the Plains and Midwest.