12-03-2012 11:35 AM
Just posted Roy Smith's new column. We were late on the uptake, sorry, Roy and all.
Interesting column (full story), as he's suggesting the possibility, however unlikely, of a second "dead cat bounce,"
What would it take? "...for the current rally to continue until next Tuesday to complete the time requirement of ten trading days higher than the second harvest low. With the price of 14.06 on the close Friday, the probability is good that all criteria will be met for a second dead cat bounce next week."
In any case, with the South American crop still in play, expect about a month of volatility--with prices testing both the high and low sides of the trading range, Roy says.
12-03-2012 12:44 PM
need to see beans take out some overhead resistance for the bounce to be anything more then a dead cat bounce
good start would be a close above 14.60........and then a close above 200 day moving average
room for upside with the funds not all long...........but need a story to make it happen
"buy fear" "sell greed"
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12-03-2012 11:19 PM
How many beans are left in farmers bins now? My pure guess is that locally, a lot of beans went to town off the combine or shortly thereafter.
How much storage have farmers built recently?
Combine farmers' storage with a heavier than usual harvest delivery and we may have fewer beans than normal in storage, and those may be in hands that are keeping their mouths and bin doors shut.
The market is going to have to get smarter about figuring out farm stored grains, as farmers are not talking as much and as much less grain than normal is in government storage programs where the quantity is disclosed.
If that is right, it supports the idea of volatility and maybe higher prices or at least tighter basis.
12-04-2012 06:05 AM
In the eastern belt, everyone's bins are full of beans. So, the answer might be regional and thus not matter much. Many who couldn't store corn due to toxin issues/fears, stored all the beans.