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10-30-2013 08:47 PM
Why...because I hear a lot of this talk about cash war chests built up to get through some tough years...can't pay these ground prices and rents with soybeans and history repeats itself.
10-30-2013 09:12 PM
If you are stupid enough to think that corn with a 3 in front will sustain,you must be some one from the third world,or simply farming the gov. It seems logical that a producer would do every thing in their power to crimp the supply and rest this one out! Bin,plant some thing eles,tell the land lord we will see you the next go around!Rest some land!
10-30-2013 09:33 PM
10-30-2013 09:43 PM
I don't "buy" the having to buy back demand part after seeing last yr play out -- it's still alive and well -- believe USDA currently has exports underestimated by 300 - 500 mil bu and total usage even more...while price stays below $6.00
remember it's partly a shell game where usage (that did occur last yr - but was invisible) will show up on this years ledger.
10-30-2013 10:53 PM - edited 10-30-2013 10:54 PM
C = $6.25 - $6.75 by early spring.
B = ?? (price) - bottom line (ending stocks) will be unch or go down on report.
even though there is no biological possibility of more beans b/c of lack of rain 8/1 -9/15, if USDA reports a higher yield it means it was actually higher on Sep report than reported (due to est. error, etc.)......the actual, actual went down......no physiological doubt about it.
so even if they report a full bu higher, we may have 30-35 mil extra bu which will easily already be taken in usage rows.
writing is already in pipeline
10-30-2013 11:22 PM - edited 10-30-2013 11:24 PM
no sir, no drinking either....it's part technicals, where the $$ is overbalanced, moving in sympathy with what I believe's going on in the beans some.......we live in a competitive grain world whose landscape is entirely different than 20-30 yrs ago. Also, may take those prices to get any more outta Arg?
Won't it take $5.50 - $6.00 before the US farmer lets go of much more? the Big comm $$ is at least 4% longer than when price was last 3 -- rallied to 4.50 pretty readily.
--realize I'm venturing into whacko waters a bit with that, but on balance....................................??? I still don't completely buy the 13.5B or better.....sub 13 on final would not completely surprise.
......and we are not out of the extreme weather patterns either.