Marketing

[ncil]

I wasn't farming in the 70's but I remember Dad had a few good years in there.

I was trying to equate that to today.

In Oct 1974 corn got to about $3.87 on the board.

One 1974 dollar would be worth about 4.97 today.

So in 1974 dollars that would be about $19 dollars on the board.

I thought $8 was high and it is.

The market seems to ignore that carry out inventory is at historic lows for 2 years in a row.

Yes if we have ideal weather we could have a 2B bu surplus.

But in a bad year, the $10 corn that is talked about may be too low historically.

Farming is less about production practices and all about risk management.

By the way the 80's that followed weren't that much fun.

Casino anyone.

[c-x-1]

if the grains ever "catch up" to current real $ values weez a gonna thank ar curn't prices cheap! 

[viperkev]

Don't forget the market doesn't care about historic lows, it is only looking at the low export numbers as well as the biggest acreage prediction  for 2013 at almost 100 million. Only that will change if the drought really hasn't ended but proof will have to be shown that it is going to affect this years crop. Also there are so many acres in S.A. going in the ground right now that it will take the pressure off the tight carryover in the U.S. More than they have ever seen after soybeans and they still had some in the bins from last year. The U.S. isn't the only game in town anymore when it comes to corn exports. India also exported corn to China the past few days which has never happened in history.

You might be able to make a case for inflation would make $18. corn but don't forget in 1974 the yield was only running at about 100 bu/acre compared to the last five year average of 150 -160?  In 1974 S.A. wasn't exporting a bushel of any grain so if that was the case today than the market wouldn't be able to ignore tight stocks. Things are different in many ways in 2013!

Kevin

[WCMO]

Was in high school in 1974 -- remember it was a really bad year in this area -- all the kids in family that were old enough got their first taste of summer jobs that year (5 of us started working outside the farm) because folks were concerned they wouldn't make it.  Recall chopping alot of silage that year (short corn with no ears).  Weather was hot & dry during summer, might have had a wet spring and/or a late spring frost on top of that, etc.  And, that's the year Dad sold his sows so he wouldn't have to buy corn.  Rough year, and nobody carried multi-peril crop insurance back then -- if it was available from USDA, I'm sure it was expensive, or just a CAT policy.

[c-x-1]

Howdy viper,

thanks for your perspective. Wow - India corn to China - never imagined that one happening.

email if you like. how was yyz?

[Shaggy98]

In 1975 my dad gave my mom 1000 bushels of wheat for her to buy a different car. He didn't care if it were new or used, but she had to do her own marketing and use the money for what ever she desired. She would up with a brand new Pontiac Grand Prix. You remember the ones that had a hood about 10' long and a truck about 3' long. My sister ended up with that car for her high school wheels, she drove it until about 1990. What makes me sick is mom traded off a 1969 Pontiac GTO Judge on the Grand Prix. WHAT THE HELL WAS SHE THINKING?

[viperkev]

Hey c-x-1

Yeah I would have never thought but here it is:

http://zeenews.india.com/business/tags/india%27s-maize-exports-to-china.html

YYZ was interesting, but at times scary in many areas especially your continuing deficit stand-off with your  two levels of Government.

I'm still trying to get caught up after being away so much but yeah I will email ya next week. I have one more meeting that starts this weekend and goes until Tuesday then I will have some time.

Kevin

[ray h.]

    You want to know how good the seventies were,1974 we had hundreds of acres of SWW that year that all went142 bu average.That is hard to beat today.Production cost was low,sub 20 cent N. Diesel high 20's-low30;s and if I remember corectly,no fugisides. This crop was sold mostly for over $6.00 per bu. Mirrored again in 1975. If pricing was to be as grand today,my math says we would have to aproach $30.00 bu. But guess what,every one is happy as a clam with $7.00 plus. (go figure!)

[Palouser]

India exports a fair amount of food - including rice and soy.

India grows much more food than the U.S. I've seen wheat grown around orange trees there.

China grows 2.5 times what we grow. Not bad for a country that is per capita one of the driest in the world.

[WCMO]

Wow, GTO, good car!  I had a Cutlass 442 -- should never have sold it either!