02-22-2013 05:23 AM - edited 02-22-2013 05:36 AM
c-x-1 - What do you think about Bloomberg saying USDA is (this morning) predicting a 33% lower corn price and a 27% lower bean price for 2013? If this happens and it applies to the prices now reflected in the markets, kinda looks like a "black swan" event that could kinda correct not only land prices, but also will result in a major correction in rents, inputs, equipment purchases and in effect, cause agriculture to join the rest of the world that is now winding down on economic activity. If this happens, there are going to be "bubbles" bursting all over farm country.
Of course . . . it is a USDA prediction and is about as reliable as the comic book they publish each month. I mean . . . Larry, Moe, and Curley should send us all some of what they are smoking. It appears they do not understand that only "rain" makes grain, and seeds just do not grow without water.
Kinda looks like the great snow storm of the Century did not materialize in DSM looks like about 3 inches of snow, what is that about 1/8th inch of moisture? What a frigging joke. Just sayin . . . John
02-22-2013 05:47 AM
The prices going lower now are only increasing demand......not rationing the old crop.
02-22-2013 08:04 AM - edited 02-22-2013 02:20 PM
I think it will not hold the break out. Probably has more to do with option expiry today with a ton of $15. strike priced options. U.S. export sales might be large but with a S.A. 25% larger soy crop, this is just a correction as well as an option expiry exercise.
02-22-2013 11:00 AM - edited 02-22-2013 11:04 AM
I agree w/ roarin' on the demand. Their ain't much rationing going on yet...Of course, we will know more come Mar. stocks.
Didn't read Bloomberg /Max Headroom (remember him) talking HEADS article. I'm startin' to use a lot of articles like that, well...for toilet paper - it saves $$.
Could new crop Corn slide to 462, Beans to 1095 by the END of the year WITH a pretty good harvest, SURE. But let me ask y'all, how many Einstiens did it take to come up with that one??? OH, that's right, they were the 3 stooges disguised in Einstien suits.
there's a lot of ground to be covered both in the fields and on the charts between now and Dec, 31, Faust.................another thing, the bubbles bursting and all the DOOM talk will SUPPORT the AG business and mkts - best i can tell....at least, after the dust settles, so to speak.
02-22-2013 01:59 PM
another good article similar to your pimco post last night......again, in our scenario, hard assets ( METALS, FOOD, WATER, FEUL, ETC.) WILL fair better, including ( I would think) farmland - not same animal as "other real estate" ( what one thinks of as TYPICAL REAL ESTATE)
02-22-2013 02:18 PM - edited 02-22-2013 02:20 PM
Sorry for the slow reply, as I was away since 10:00 AM. Short answer is "definitely". I sold a few contracts at 7:45 AM and with the even more bearish close today it looks ugly. The only thing that will give some sort of bounce in my mind will be another drought in 13'. The trend on weather seems to be turning some wetter so we will have to see over ther next few weeks. Today is a bearish reversal for sure.
02-22-2013 02:38 PM
just seemed to me like the rally that began 1/11 had legs b/c OI has increased significantly?
interesting....so, you think any "premium" in beans now - will erode going into planting?
it sure was a heck of a reversal day...guess we'll see what the COT says.