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Contributor
saturated
Posts: 31
Registered: ‎07-21-2011

Stocks report

Some years ago I worked for a farmer by the name of Stanley Johnson. He lived north of Paloma Illinois, which is in Adams County (WC IL.). After providing me with his opinion, he would give the following disclaimer. “This opinion and 25 cents will buy you a cup of coffee.” (At that time coffee was a quarter.)

My impression of the stocks report is that it is not bearish. Corn stocks were down 600 million from same time last year at 5.4 billion bushels. The average of guess of the experts was 5.0 billion stocks. The report was 400 million bushels more then expected.

With 6 months remaining in the crop year(from March 4th) there is enough corn left to use 900 million

bushels per month(with no remainder)(5.4 billion / 6 months). Looking at the February WASDE report, the expected usage(feed & residual, food seed industrial, exports) is 11,262 million bushel. Divide this number by 12 and it gives a simplistic number of 939 of average usage per month. I decided to go further and reduce exports from the February WASDE report because according to the last weekly export inspection report currently corn exports are about 44% of a year ago. So instead of using 825 for exports(USDA Feb.. number) I will use 680 million bushels of exports( a difference of 145 mil bushels). The new usage number is 11,117 million bushels, divided by twelve giving 926 mil. bushels usage per month on average. Also the USDA has 632 million bushels of carryout.

According to the last WASDE report, the most recent weekly grain export inspection report, and this recent quarterly stocks number, the USDA will need to find approximately 788 million bushels to reach their 632 ending stocks number.

Referring to the beginning paragraph I will close by saying this opinion and $1 will get you a cup of coffee.

 

Paul Lange

 

 

 

 

Contributor
saturated
Posts: 31
Registered: ‎07-21-2011
0

Re: Stocks report

I apologize for a mistake from previous entry. The USDA will need to find approx. 315 million bushels not 779 Million bushels in my opinion.

 

Paul Lange

 

Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 693
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Stocks report

couple of things...

 

we don't use an equal quantity of corn per month, especially for exports.....but since we throttled exports back, perhaps this is the year that we come closer to an equal amount per month.....also expect to see quite a bit of wheat feeding this summer...

 

corn stocks don't go to zero.....back in '96 we pretty much ran the country out of corn by mid-August with a 500 myn carryout projected for Sept 1 that year....

Advisor
425Cat
Posts: 1,689
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Stocks report

Shake and Bake Baby!!! this thing ain't over yet . Its on ly March. Testing major support tonight. A gift for the enduser today.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Stocks report

.......interesting, in the physical world Corn is tighter than '96--------------thanks for the straight math saturated.......we've had enough of the FUNNY MATH going around in the "Fantasy corn league."

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Stocks report

cat,

the end users are on full IV heroin hook up just about now--------enjoy the high while it lasts, eyyy?

Senior Contributor
NDf
Posts: 329
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Stocks report

If the price of corn gets low enough we might use more than his average. Also to feed wheat we need a good US crop and the shape of that crop is very much up in the air for now anyway. I guess what I'm getting at is that the situation is fluid nothing is set in stone.

Advisor
425Cat
Posts: 1,689
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Stocks report

Yep I don't believe demand is dead just dormat. You can't fatten steers on corn stalks alone. More corn please.

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 432
Registered: ‎04-02-2012

Re: Stocks report

I bought 30 straight future contracts for July at 651. Like I said before they are giving a once in a lifetime deal.
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,211
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Stocks report

Might be a good idea for the Ray Jenkins of the world to get what they need right now while it is still on sale, maybe yet tonight.

 

I'm showing $7.15 cash local with the 22 cents down right now, about where it was 3 ish weeks ago.

 

Going once

 

Going twice

 

Going....

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."