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07-18-2013 07:21 AM
It's Thursday Morning. I wrote this on last Sunday:
Listening to the talking heads on the Ag-TV channels really leads one to believe that all is well in Americas's heartland. Weather is showing IA to get 2 inches of rain this week, and a 100% coverage of an inch or more over the rest of the country. Keep that report in mind over the next week and we'll see who's closer on this one. All I see is scattered showers - no thunderstorm development other than a localized heating event creating an uplift, but certainly no widespread system giving the entire midwest a drink. We'll review this one next Sunday.
The TV meteoroligists have a few more days. But we can probably review now. What they forcast, will not happen. the thing that you have to ask yourself, though, is why I was confident of my forcast, against someone with a degree who's job it is TO FORCAST THE WEATHER - ACURATLY!!! If i saw the forcast for what is was - why didn't they.
Blame it on computer modeling. I saw the same models. No rain in my forcast. Blame it on ineptness. No, these guys seem pretty. How about presenting something to the American Farmer that isn't true in an effort to get them to sell their crop? There ya go. A concerted effort of those that control what we hear, what we see, presented to us in a need little package. And now and then they are right, to lend credibility to what they say. It's so hard to seperated the truth from fiction anymore.
And there is the reason for my posts. Show me the rain. Everything makes grain these days, everything is bearish, also like I've been saying for a while. Again, a concerted effort to get the American Farmer to sell his/her crop for the lowest level they can possibly get it at. Which brings me back to accountablity. Why are not these people who post, and print, and report this bs not held accountable? Why are they not called out for what they are? I don't know - I'm just asking the questions, much as I have been all along. what I said above with the talking heads would not be happening.
We farmers have allowed ourselves to be put in this position. We allowed others to make the important decisions for us. We did not take the time to study to get ourselves smart enough to make our own decisions. If we had, this kind of bs would not be taking place, as no one would listen.
It has not rained for three weeks in general, a whole lot more for many other folks. There is NO RAIN IN THE FORCAST. None. And 10 days out, it gets dryer as that dome is still forcast to move in from Canada. And we're lower, and probably will continue lower. How low? Until the phyche of a good portion of the farmers is broke, and all hope is lost of getting any more for his/her crop.
The board doesn't move higher, until the bulk of the grain is out of the farmers hands. I really believe that this is a true statement. The real income in farming is not for the farmers. It is for those that are FARMING THE FARMERS. All the bullish news over the last few weeks. And the market is lower.
We as farmers work our entire lives. We risk it all every year on a crop that we can not possibly get the top of the market on, because the top will not happen until enough of us have sold, so others can make the profit from our sweat, our equity, and our pain.
What do we do about it? Accountability. We must hold those accountable that don't do thier jobs. How do we do it - I don't know. If I knew that I could fix Washington. What is infecting Washington infects us down on the farm. And what is infecting us is greed. In the case of us farmers, we are making others so much money it's frightening. We work 16 hours a day, and make our tiny wage, while others make the rest of it. I want the American Farmer to get their share. I want you guys still farming to get paid what your worth.
07-18-2013 07:35 AM
Well Jen, yes it is hot and dry. We need a rain for the corn is tasseling and is a thirsting. The little beans are just struggling.
As far as weathermen in cahoots with other dasterdly gov leadership in an attempt to get the corn and soys out of the farmer's bins and in their greedy hands cheap, well, what is cheap? The ethanol plant is bidding $7.00+ per bu of corn right today, and the soybean plant is above $15.50/bu for soys today, so, why hold anything in the bins at this price level? They aren't exactly bidding on the "cheap" for the physical spot today--wouldn't you agree?
Now the O/N bids are cheap with corn $4.30 and soys $11.60, but, is anyone really booking delivery at those levels? I think we are all going to wait and see when the combines roll, then give up. Right now, it is clear there is a need for grains in this country, and profits can be made at today's price points, so why let it go any cheaper this fall?
Other than that, do you think there was more than one shooter in the Kennedy assination?
07-18-2013 08:05 AM
No there was one shooter. Do I think there is a conspiracy present in the marketing of grain in this country, da, yes. One that could never be proven. I could if we as farmers would start to demand more of those that drive us to make our decisions.
I'm back at home in Cannon Falls this morning. Wrote the thing above after my morning weather briefing, and jumped in the hot tub. (yeah - I know it's hot enough already - but more on that in a bit)
As I was in the hot tub, I began to think about my dairy farmer friend next door, and all his financial problems over the years. He works hard. Everydairy farmer works hard, I know. I was one. But you know, for all his work, all his capital investment, and all of his risk over the years, the guy who picked up his milk with his bulk truck was making more than the farmer was. What in the world have we allowed ourselves to get into.
I was also thinking about all this heat, no rain. Markets lower. Crop looks good. Stop right there. Crop LOOKS good. Let me tell you about my crop from last year. Hot, dry, but the crop really LOOKED good. For about 12 rows in. The outside rows were cooler, inside the field, it cooked. Don't be fooled by those that say we have this great crop because of how it looks. In my case, my outside rows yielded 170 to 200 bu/ac. Just inside the boundary, it dropped to 130. I could show it to you on my Insight monitor. Guys, rain this time of year makes grain. There's just no if, ands, or buts about it. Don't sell now. Don't be fooled into selling a crop because of the the bs about the huge crop and were going lower. The only thing going lower is the crop size. You that farm know it, I know it.
On the rain front, again, that's my point - there are no fronts capable in the near future of producing more than a pop-up thunderstorm. Nothing that produces a general rain in sight. And after the next ten days, right now, looks even dryer. I don't care what the 6-10 and 8-14 day forcasts say. I don't care what the talking heads say. I'm telling ya what is. Other than a passing convective shower, there is nothing out there capable of causing convective activity over a large area.
And their it is. My morning rant and weather briefing. It's not what you see, it's what you don't see that is the problem.
07-18-2013 08:48 AM
DTN is fairly accurate with their forcast this morning. We have a critcal weekend coming up. If my forcast holds, sooner or later these markets have to break higher. What DTN isn't saying:
The increased chances for rain are not widespread events. Localized areas may be able to generate enough lift in the atmosphere to cause some localized rain events, less than 10 - 15% coverage, and amounts less than 1/2 inch.
West of the Mississippi - more of the same.
Next week, the heat returns with a dome rebuilding over the entire cornbelt. It looks to have a good amount of strength right now, probably at least a 4-5 day event.
07-18-2013 09:06 AM
(Reuters) - U.S. drought conditions expanded for the fourth week in a row as dryness persisted in the western half of the country, including key crop states of Kansas and Nebraska, while conditions in the South reached their driest in two months, according to a weekly drought report.
In contrast, the eastern half of the United States remained out of drought, given steady summer rains and cool temperatures.
The U.S. Drought Monitor, issued by state and federal experts, said on Thursday that drought areas in the "moderate to exceptional" range reached 44.85 percent, up from 44.06 percent a week ago.
"Dry conditions persisted across most of the southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley," the online U.S. Drought Monitor said.
While temperatures there were still generally below normal for the week, they were still warm, it said. "Accordingly, the coverage of drought conditions was increased across the Southern Great Plains."
Drought Monitor author Matthew Rosencrans of the U.S. Climate Prediction Center told Reuters the biggest change was across Arkansas, Louisiana and eastern Oklahoma.
"They had been wet in May and had some drought recovery there, but I had to really expand conditions across Arkansas, Louisiana and southern Missouri," said Rosencrans, who does not expect much drought relief for next week.
The drought also intensified in Texas, the report said.
"Farther north and west, across Oklahoma and southeastern Colorado, reports indicate sage brush and large trees dying and even some cacti turning brown," the Drought Monitor said. "Some drought expansion was also introduced across Kansas, where topsoil moisture reports indicated an increase of 38 percentage points for the portion of reports indicating short or very short moisture amounts."
In Kansas, the top wheat producer, 75.73 percent of the state is rated moderate to exceptional drought, up from 74.56 percent a week ago. But that is much improved from a year ago, when nearly 98 percent was in moderate to exceptional drought.
The drought monitor lags behind reality. The reality in the field is what I stated above, the outside of a field may look great - inside the field, with no rain, its beginning to cook.
07-18-2013 09:15 AM
Not disagreeing with you, just adding more information. Yes, it lags. Am in an abnormally dry area, temps hot and getting hotter, corn mostly planted quite late with replants into end of June, beans mostly planted quite late with replants just wrapping up. Biggest differences between last year and now -- no subsoil moisture going into 2012 planting, too wet and cold for early 2013 planting. Wet and late planting really showing up now with dry and hot weather.