07-17-2011 11:36 PM
In this week's Farm Forum column, Ray Grabanski is a bear with what he sees as expanding yield potential. He says "Until/unless something sets this crop back, we currently have a trend yield crop yield potential or higher, and yields are going up, not down. This is prime time for making sales . . . "
Of course, he also undermines his credibility, in my opinion, by claiming that soybeans have expanding yield potential "with soybeans mostly planted on time and capable of handling wet field conditions better than corn."
In my back yard, soybeans were neither planted on time, nor are they better able to handle wet fields than corn. But that does not mean Grabanski is not right about this being a good time to sell bushels.
I would like to hear what people are seeing as far as crop potential in their area. And if your crops have excellent yield potential, don't be shy, I would like to hear about them as well. What are the chances for trend line yields in your area?
In my immediate backyard in SESD, we had two weeks without rain that helped root down the crop a little and then 5 days with a total of over 5 inches of rain. The rain was a good thing going into this heat wave, except for some late-planted bottom ground which was flooded once again.
We have lost the top end yields on the corn with all the wet spots, but I'd rate trend yields here now at a 50% chance.
For beans, it is harder to predict, but you don't typically make excellent yields planting late into iffy conditions. I would rate the beans at a 25% chance of trend yields.
What say you?
07-18-2011 02:26 AM
To be brutally honest corn in NC Iowa really really looks good. I don`t know if everyone put an extra 50 lbs of N on and jumped their planting pop or what. Oh there might be a small draw of yellow corn or a stressed knob, but there`s less of that than a average year. Beans don`t look as good, it has been probably too wet, yet not terrible by any stretch. My only concern is this 95° weather at tasseling and the hot nights predicted a kernal fill, the saving grace is the timely rains that we`ve had. From what travelling I`ve done, I can`t see how it`ll be near trend though. See, these gurus probably talked their clients into selling alot of $5 corn and are now trying to wipe the eggoff their face gracefully...I really don`t have much use for gurus anymore.
07-18-2011 04:21 AM
I have noticed corn in this area looking better than the beans as well. Seems a lot of guys here in the ECB spent every last minute that wasn't raining this spring planting corn and worried about their beans for later. We haven't had real timely rains as of late and the corn desperately needs a drink this week if it is to yield much of anything. I will be taking a vacation out west this week so I plan on taking some pictures along the way and reporting on the crop progress in the cornbelt as a whole when I get back.
07-18-2011 05:07 AM
I have to disagree with beans handling too much rain better than corn. It doesn't happen here in NWC Ohio. We have had 9 tenths since the last big rain of 3" May 26th. Things are burning up. The elevator agronomist says most corn here will be lucky to make 100 bpa. If we get the rain that is predicted for this week some beans still have 40 bpa potential. But nothing like last years 60+ bpa.
07-18-2011 06:09 AM
Well corn looks good actually outside of a few mangement problems I had corn looks to be as good as ever.
Alfalfa has been good but in this heat it is maturing to fast. some that has only been cut for 24 days is blossoming already. usually you have at least 30.
Oats and spring wheat look good. to much rain so weeds are getting bad but not horrible. spring wheat and oats will be ready to combine by the end of the week.
I am really thankful for the oats and wheat about to come offf some place to go with manure will be nice.
Cows are alive but hating this heat this is gonna be real hard on Livestock this week.
It was 100 at my house at 10 am yesterday. We have lots of fans in the freestall barn but temp was still over 100 at the hottest yesterday. Cows are off on consumption about 10% right now.
07-18-2011 06:12 AM
I read his column as well and was wondering what he's been smoking. Obviously the corn production area is a huge area, but I've been through about half of Minnesota and much of South Dakota and North Dakota and haven't seen anything really good at all. I think one could easily take 5% off of planted acres due to all the drown outs and areas farmed around. Lots of uneven, stunted and yellow corn. For every good looking field, there's at least one field that isn't worth a darn.
Same goes for soybeans. Late planting, standing with their feet wet, and now with the excessive top soil moisture at flowering, I think white mold could be a big factor. Also, the soybeans suffer from drown outs, and low spots not planted at all just like the corn.
Time will tell, but I'm probably more pessimistic about yield potential here than optimistic..
07-18-2011 06:18 AM
Your poll will not be very representative of nationwide, 'cause i'm from ba and jr's area. corn looks to be ok and soybeans, while maybe shorter than we like, just seem to have the nodes closer togehter. good flowering going on and the heat knocks back any possible aphids.(for a while anyway) I've been fooled both ways by soybeans and their yield potential. my late father used to say "they don't really grow 'til august".
07-18-2011 07:29 AM
It is that time of year when all corn fields start to look better and better but from my part of Ontario there are enough fields that have been damaged and even looking better is not going to bring them back to average or 'trend' yields. Too much was planted late, even into early June.
I posted pictures in the crops forum a couple weeks ago of some corn that really suffered from too wet, Those fields are greening up now but will not likely produce much.
Corn is going to tassel soon and we are hot and dry. Last good rain was June 27 with a little shower July 3 of 7mm. More showers today, I hope, and we did get 4mm already this am but we need more with temps in the low 30's C and even overnights only going down to 20-22.
So corn will be hard pressed to hit average with all the poor spots, although some fields where everything went right will do well, but overall yields will be down in Ontario.
Soys too will be lower. Too many planted late and some put into poor soil conditions.
Went by a field Saturday that was no tilled into corn stalks 2 days before my ground was fit to till next door. that field was wilted looking and another field just across the road where the operator waited those 2 days looked OK.
Then there are the soy fields that suffered hard rain after planting and have reduced stands. So the good fields can not likely bring all the poor fields up to average but a lot of good looking crops too.
All crops have drown outs and associated stunted areas on poorly drained fields this year which keeps chipping away at yield.
Wheat will be coming off any day now and it too is variable with good and poor fields. Early yield reports from Windsor-Chatham area indicates this with poor to excellent yields being reported sometimes next door to one another. The total or average yield will have to await final calculation but probably down some from average.
07-18-2011 07:41 AM
NE NE The corn looks good from the road but we have had a lot of wind damage. I think I have lost at least 20% of my stand on at least half my acres. The storm that blew across Iowa early last Monday morning caused a lot of greensnap here but you have to get in the field to see it. With the loss of stand I don't see how we will be close to last years corn yields. Beans are finally starting to grow but didn't like all the rain we had early to many wet feet. We haven't had the rain that places further north have had so a lot of pivots are being started now.
07-18-2011 08:48 AM
This is an extremly difficult crop to judge from the road. Here in south central Wi. most of the yellow spots have greened up and look great but if you walk out in the field they are waist high and tasselling. The sandy ground is really suffering. We have had some spotty showers but nothing widespread and not close to enough. Irrigations are running non stop to stay ahead of the heat this week. Yields could be good but not above average. I have no idea how much impact this week will have on yields but I'm pretty sure it won't make it any better.