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Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,329
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

The 3 Million

acre rain..............this weekend just put the nail in the coffin...........not to mention we have had 5 storms in 6 days...........we were looking really good until Wednesday evening...........currently pouring here again, and areas that made it thru Wednesdays storms have been getting hammered again............wet feet on early corn is not good for yields...............

 

the situation along the MO River is not looking well up north either.............heck, nation wide we may not plant anymore corn this year than we did last............and soya are going to have to fight awful hard to compete for corn PP acres............

 

lower wheat yields, not enough corn acres and yield potential sliding some, not enough soya acres=DYNAMITE.......

 

Marketeye..........tell the traders this market is like a stick of dynamite with a lit fuse..............then ask them how long they think that fuse is.....................

Frequent Contributor
JRfrom OR
Posts: 27
Registered: ‎04-03-2011
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Re: The 3 Million

Mizzou,  so you think this rain may have ended the chances to plant on 3m acres?  It'll be an interesting week.  btw, out here in the west, border of ca./or., it is excessively cold.  Hay will be short for the second consecutive year.

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,329
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

I would assume

[ Edited ]

that we are about 85% planted on Tuesday, maybe less.............thats around 14M to go...........given what has happened along the MS river down south...........the OH river out east............the MO river up north.............ND, MI, WI, IN, OH, and others............

 

YES, it will be a struggle to hit 90M planted............

 

what will be even more shocking is the soya number............we were not real far along and last week was pretty horrible for much of any progress for a wide swath of land..............while guys will still keep planting into June..........its a given that a yield hit will likely take place..........you can stretch soya into late May without much of a yield hit, but once you get into June the growing season starts to get short...........and since soya go off night time length to trigger flowering..........June planted soya basically get out of the ground for a few weeks and then start flowering.........thats not much time to produce a factory for those little beans..........which means the plant has to spend more time and energy thru the summer to keep that factory building instead of spending time reproducing............so any stress will make this worse............not many people want to talk about this yet, because they are concerned with corn...........but the nat soya yield is starting to suffer too.........

 

yes its a perfect storm...........again look both ways before crossing the street..........supply and demand has just about wrestled the wheel away from the irrational and frankly clueless spec money................those guys are in for a rude awakening, and I hope it shakes their tree because grain commodities have been cheap and easy for too long........its about time main street and wall street understands the risk and dedication it takes to put food on a table and some fuel in their tanks.........way too many people think milk and cheese come from isle 9 and bread from isle 2.........IMO there are a lot of shorts in the wheat market and soya market............this will only add to the storm.............

 

done with rant........

 

EDIT:  our perfect start has been downgraded to holding on in the matter of a few short days.........its beginning to look like 2010, with ocean front property..........corn does not like wet feet early on, especially when its followed by heat and wind..........I have heard two summer forecast, one is below normal temps and moisture..........the other is below normal moisture and above normal temp..........IMO neither bode well, and with 92-94 degrees coming in tomorrow, lets just hope the rain doesn't just go away or we are in trouble............

 

 

 

Frequent Contributor
justinbarnes710
Posts: 70
Registered: ‎04-28-2011
0

Re: I would assume

Mizzou-

I'm right there with you.  Many bullish factors to play out.

 

Big bull argument: national corn yield anything less than record.

 

Big bear argument:  government intervention.

 

How likely is the government to intervene at current commodity prices?  In my opinion corn would need to be quite a bit higher.

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precision ridge
Posts: 4
Registered: ‎03-27-2011
0

Re: The 3 Million

Here in SC MN the storms this morning might have finished our spring planting.  We have been wet with limited planting windows all spring.  But hadn't had much ponding until today.  Rain gauge show 1.75 inches and the lakes in front of my place looks more like a 4 inch rain.  But our ground is so saturated that now we have some serious standing water.  My guess for the local 4 counties (Meeker,Kandiyohi,Renville and Redwood) is that 75-80% of the corn, 55-60% soybeans, 85-90% beets and 35-40% of the sweetcorn and sweet peas have been planted.  And the crops that have been planted maybe 30% corn, 5% soybeans, 5% sugarbeets and 5% of the canning crops are up.  With all the cool weather we are far enough behind that our production could be limited to 40-50% of normal.

Veteran Contributor
ag-?
Posts: 84
Registered: ‎05-11-2011
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Re: The 3 Million

Here in ND the window is closing fast on planting. I cann't tell you what final #s will be for various crops but i am willing to bet if things don't change we will strugggle to get one third of totlal acres planted. The ground is so saturated and forecaste for next two weeks is above normal precipation . This also extends around to all of our neighbors in MN, MT, SD, and Canada.  Wheat acres will be down significantly and also canola,and soybean acreage. The loss on planted acres is going to grow here to because rains are drownding out already planted acreage.

 

I never thought it could be that you couldn't plant sighnificant amount of your acreage but i guess i am being prooven wrong.  I think markets are going to go wild in next month when they figure out that this projected crop is not going to happen. My grampa always said you shouldn;t count something until you had in hand and maybe were going to learn lthis as country cann't count crop not gown as something in inventory. The next several months are going to be interesting times and see if politicians can stay out market  let market ration supplies or will mettle in the market and agriculture distrupting whole market world wide.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Frequent Contributor
rusureofit
Posts: 64
Registered: ‎05-15-2011
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Re: The 3 Million

Just north of willmar, MN and just finished the corn last thursday, what I could plant, went around a lot of mudholes, been raining off and on since.  Haven't planted any beans yet, I checked one of my drier tiled fields and with 6 tile intakes on 70 acres there were still 7 places with standing water.  The water levels on all the lakes and streams are so high that the tile outlets in many places are below the water level so the tiles can't drain.  Talked to three farmers yesterday who all said they will be taking Prevented Planting on some corn acres, one had 40 acres the others each had about 150 acres left, none of them were switching to beans as they didn't know when they would be able to get the beans in that they want to plant much less adding more beans acres.  Another farmer has at least 300 acres of corn left to plant here.  Over two inches of rain in the last week and more coming tonight.   Latest I ever finished planting beans was may 30th in 1996  today is may 30th and I haven't even started planting beans yet!  Glad I got a little corn left to sell!

Contributor
farmer3
Posts: 11
Registered: ‎02-01-2011
0

Re: The 3 Million

I agree with you Mizzou_Tiger,  there is going to be more PP acres up in my area then ever before.  And i am not the only one thinking that, it is being reported on the local farm network stations as well.  We have had nothing but heavy rains since thursday of last week.  And today is no exception.  I took a long drive to see for myself what acres are planted so i drove from the south dakota north dakota border and headed north.   There is only a small percentage of land that is planted, and what is alot of it is under wather or so mudded in it is not ever going to make a decent stand.  Heading west across a good third of the state of north dakota, there is pretty much NOTHING planted.  the same goes for minnesota when i head east.  I am a farmer whom has had more then enough time on his hands considering i can not get any of my own crop in.  SO my jugement is not bias at all, simply black and white actually.  There is only about 30 percent of the spring wheat planted in north dakota and western minnesota.  And that is a HUGE deal considering the state of north dakota is larger than Kansas in producing wheat.    Everyone whom i talked to at the coffee shops on the way all said the same thing.  This country has no idea as to how much preventive planting is going to be going on.  It is so big that Bill Murphy (the administrator for RMA) is going to arrive in North Dakota to see if they should extend the planting dates for corn, beans and wheat.    I am not kidding when i say that there is easily MILLIONS of acres of land the is not planted and may not get planted this year in north dakota, western minnesota.   I have not ventured into canada to see what they have got going, maybe i will do that this week.  Lord knows i can not do anything here on my own farm. 

 

Advisor
nwobcw
Posts: 1,703
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: The 3 Million

   8.1" of rain in May in my sliver of the pie.  Normal is 3.5"..There might be 15% planted in a 15 mile radius from here, maybe.  I'm estimating starting to plant Friday the 3rd with all beans.  That's only 18 days before the day length goes the other way.  With the way this year may turn out I almost have to plant some beans to cover the 40% of a normal crop I have contracted.  Cattle are knee deep in mud.  Hay is high and going down, orchard grass already gone to seed.  Pasture is too soft to let cattle out in it.  Bought some hay last week.  There's always a chance of an afternoon storm when the heat and humidity builds like it is now.  We dodged a bullet Sunday night but lower Michigan took a big hit.

Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 897
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
0

Re: The 3 Million

Yeah NW we didn't get much rain Saturday with the big storm that moved through here but we did have a small tornado a few miles north of me. We did however get an inch of rain Friday night. The fields are a mess right now.