Marketing

[Palouser]

Brazil is going to have some record sized crops - and therein lies a problem. The delay for ships loading in Parana is already over 30 days. Add to that a record amount of soy to be shipped.

But wait! It gets better! They are going to ship a record amount of corn! I would assume that port facilities and storage for soy will have to be used to get all that corn loaded too. I would assume too that all this activity using the same amount of capacity may cause inefficiencies. And truck lines that were 30 miles long will be greater? Well, I guess there are only so many trucks. What is the ripple effect of having them stacked up waiting. I assume then that the problem goes further up country unless much more storage has been built there.

[Palouser]

Sorry, I didn't mean to repeat though I added a thought. Using my phone, didn't think the previous got posted and no way to edit on the mobile version. That'll teach me.

[roarintiger1]

This has been headline news all fall and winter.....It will take no one by surprise.

[marketeye]

Palouser,

Tomorrow, I will have an update on Brazil. We will also show photos. I'm not sure the news is changing much for soybeans. But, maybe a new nugget or so about corn. Stay tuned!

Mike

[Palouser]

One report had a Brazilian spraying fungicide 8 times this season and a photo showing a lime skip on new ground which soy was struggling to survive in. I wonder how far that lime is shipped to the frontier and how much it cost?

[Palouser]

I believe that you are correct. But I want to know if they can do it.

[BlackCattle]

Brazil is not a long term threat. Their red sois are nonsustaining long term... Enjoy the conjestion while it lasts.....corrupt government and low csr make them uncompetitive.

[RWflier]

I'll go along with the goverment part and they probably have disease problems, too.  But there's still a lot of beans going to hit the market sometime down the road.  That's got to be some of the reason for being $4. off the high.

[marketeye]

As promised, I just posted a little diddy about Brazil's harvest obstacles.

Brazil's logistical fears realized

Mike

[Palouser]

Black, you'll have to define 'long term'. If Brazil can develop rail lines to most regions it would be a minor problem to back haul lime (plentiful compared to fertilizers) and they use state of the art notill (which they are well acquainted already) I would question your conclusion. Or at least the time frame. I farm ground that was once considered, and still is by some no doubt, to be doomed because of erosion and acidity. Practices have changed and yields of small grains have increased steadily with no appreciable change in inputs and minor erosion. Yield increases in small grains can't be attributed to genetics in the fashion that corn and beans can.

As for corruption there are plenty of places in the world much worse than I know about and surprise, surprise, the socialists in Brazil have managed their economy pretty well as evidenced by the surge of the Real against other currencies the last 5-6 years. In fact, Brazilian farmers have that as a major complaint as it reduces their domestic income for commodities like soy in $$$.

But it is true that Brazil has some real disadvantages w/ soil quality and market access due to undeveloped infrastructure.