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01-12-2011 09:13 AM
I was a little to bullish.......
Here is how my guesses came out...... I still feel that 500 mil will happen unless the market slows demand.....p-oed
Corn S & D's
Beg Stocks 1708
Production 12440 Yield down 1.3 bu/ac
Production ..... off by 7 mil......12447
Add 5 mil........
Supply total 14163
Total supply...... 14175
Feed & Res 5300 Depending on Dec stocks report..... This could be higher
Off by 100 mil....... 5200
Food, Seed, Ind 1400 Increased HFCS because of high sugar prices
Off by 20 mil ....... 1380
Ethanol 4975 Could be 100 mil bu higher?
Off by 75 mil...... 4900..... I will still argue that if prices do not go up this is low.......
Domestic total 11675
Total use domestic...... 11480.....195 off.....
Exports 1950 Depending on world demand (China-Argentina) could be a lot higher?
Stayed the same...... China anyone?.......
Total use 13625
Total use.....13430..... Off by 195 mil bu
Ending Stocks 538
Ending stocks...... 745..... off by 207 mil bu
% of use .039%
01-12-2011 10:27 AM
No jr I did not sell anything...... But I will tell you that the bear claws are out and I am sharpening them......:~)..... I will be setting some goals as the market moves higher (Assuming that it does) to get to 75 to 80% sold before March planting intentions....... I plan on keeping some wildcat bu back for the summer fire works that may appear....... But i will not gamble much more than 10 to 15%...... p-oed
01-12-2011 10:38 AM
Any guesses on who rations demad first. It looks like everytime corn goes up so does cattle, hogs, and ethanol. Reminds me a lot of 08 and in 08 no one stopped using corn when it was at $8 but banks forced a few out when we went back to $3
01-12-2011 11:34 AM
No one stopped using corn in 08? Hmmm, that's interesting considering USDA pegged carryouts at 717 million bushels. When the smoke cleared for the marketing year, the carryout was over 1.6 billion.
01-12-2011 12:18 PM
P if you look at gores number you will find demand was rationng wwwaaaaaaayyyyyyy befoe 8. The problem was specs got all bulled up and just didn't beliese we could grow a crop. Rationing has alread started just not at E plants.
01-12-2011 12:23 PM
jr...... There is no question that 8 dollar corn will go beyond where it needs to cut the demand ....... but as always the market will over shoot the # that would be needed...... I believe that the market will want to go and test the old 08 highs...... I am a seller before it gets there....FWIW...... p-oed
01-12-2011 01:08 PM
The July crop report in 08 showed the ending stocks of 1.598 Bill bu for the 07-08 crop. In the December report it showed 1.624 So really didn't ration that much corn at $8. If you look at the 08-09 balance sheet yes we went from 670 mill to about 1.5 bill in the same time period. Some of that change came from a bump in yield but a majority of it came from ethanol plants going broke when corn was at $4. So I know it sounds stupid to say that in 08 it wasn't $8 that caused people to stop using corn it was in fact $4 corn that stopped corn usage.
I don't think you can link a the price of corn to a point of rationing. Yes $8 corn doesn't work in a $1 fat but it does in a $1.20 fat. Its going to be awful hard to ration anything with the market trading like it is. It seems like everytime corn goes up so do ethanol and livestock so as of today it has been hard to ration. Forward margins on ethanol and livestock look poor so no one has the ability to lock in corn at a profit but the livestock and the ethanol industry seem like they want to operate until the bank tells them they can't.