08-12-2013 10:11 AM
and is premature anyway. But I've generally found that the trends on the soil moisture anomaly map in August are one of the better predictors of soybean yields. Currently dryness is creeping across a lot of the growing area from the west- not news to a lot of people who are affected, I'm sure.
To be a big deal it would have to generally expand and continue through until Labor Day or later. That idea might be supported somewhat by extended guidance and there are still no hurricanes in the Atlantic. But you wouldn't pay money for my meteorological prowess either.
The other indicator of bean yields that I find useful is simply see how green the grass is on about the 20th of August. I'm guessing it is browning up in some of the western areas but in a bit of a contradiction of myself, things generally still look pretty green in most of the ECB so it isn't going to take a lot of rain in those areas to finish well.
But anyway, I'm growing a little less bullish bean yields which has 0 to do with today's report or near term markets.