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Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
0

Thursdays report...... FWIW

I have not talked a lot about this market here for a while....... Just thought that I would throw my .02 worth in......... I am in the camp that we will not see bigger total production on corn..... We "MAY" see a bump in beans but I can tell you from experience that it takes a LOT of 45 to 60 beans to make up for 0 to 20 bu beans..... With the drought covering such a large area this year I just can not see the yields getting any bigger...... We will see Thursday morning for sure...... My point is..... It makes little difference in the longer run ...... IMHO this market still has a job to do and it will provide a lot of pain before it is all said and done....Good luck....... p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
0

Re: Thursdays report...... FWIW

One more thing..... 

 

USDA still has a problem accounting for the nearly 1 bil + bu of cor that was harvested in Aug...... 

Where did it go?....... p-oed

 

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Thursdays report...... FWIW

[ Edited ]

it went thru a chopper............a batwing..............into some bacon..........some chicken wings............a filet............or an injector.........

 

will the third time be the charm............slide thru summer 2011 and 2012 on scraps and broom sweepings from previous years crops, even a few SA scraps this past summer..........what will 2013 look like.........

 

normally takes 3-4 bins to hold the corn crop............took less than half of one this year..........when end users are calling in the middle of harvest...........well whatever...........guess we should all count ourselves lucky we still have a strong demand base..........course then again, you can't eat an IPHONE or IPOD or IPAD........contrary to popular belief............

 

 

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,231
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Thursdays report...... FWIW

I ask can anyone think of ANY reason(s) c/b markets would need to trend DOWN after report?

 

i can't think of any, but sometimes i don't know much.

Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 144
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
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Re: Thursdays report...... FWIW

Dear Senior Contributor:

 

I'm not sure corn and beans NEED to trend down or up, but since you asked, and  I am assuming you are asking if there are REASONS why they should go up or down,  so here is my take:

 

There are two reasons why they will go down:  Declining demand, and increasing supply.   Both are in place.  Life is much simpler than we want to make it.  

Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 414
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
0

Re: Thursdays report...... FWIW

VAn, increasing supply.  Do you mean your farm, your county, your state, the US or the World supply?  Makes a big difference.

 

Selling at these prices is still a big win.  BUT, that doesn't mean the supply and demand situation is fixed.  Too much corn sold with five in front to slow down demand enough.  And then there is the problem of no soil moisture.  Then on the beans, they are shipping them out of the US like the blue light special.

 

GOP win usually favors lower prices, but even they can't change things without rain.   If they succeed in lowering gas prices, that will be the first shot in breaking the upward trend.    Have you noticed how many products use DDG's?  It seems to be in everything these days.

 

Is this time different, or will we repeat the 80's.....that is the trillion dollar question.    Let's see, 83 was a big drought, but a few years later it was ugly time for prices and interest rates.  So, if interest rates start rising that will be the second shot in the uptrend.

 

So I guess, it still comes down to RAIN.  Any predictions that don't include that in the equation, is pure fantasy.

So. IA
Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 144
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
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Re: Thursdays report...... FWIW

I'm talking global.  That determines the market these days.  Local stuff is for coffee shops and chat lines.

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Thursdays report...... FWIW

I am still waiting for data to suggest that global demand over time is shrinking..........

 

no one has showed the goods yet............although a lot of people blow hot air about it..........

 

please elaborate on shrinking demand.............and not in terms of months or a few years...........decade trends...........

 

if we going big lets get this thing blown wide open and think past this weeks report...........

 

last time I checked very few even saw it coming in late 2010.........then this thing was supposed to be over in early 2011...........then late 2011..........then early 2012........then late 2012............IMO things are different this time even if we crash tomorrow............and anyone that doesnt see or believe that is still in denial from the last 3 growing seasons.................just like in 09 when things went south and we supposedly grew a monster crop, it only took 6 months, the June 2010 stocks report for things to turn and start the run again............

 

again, lets go big picture since you apparently dont like the coffees shop..........

 

I WANNA see some NUMBERS...........NOT CHATTER...........

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 407
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
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Re: Thursdays report...... FWIW

Globally last time I checked we are running out of supply. I don't know were you are getting your information vanderplas but I think I would look at the world supply numbers again.
Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 144
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
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Re: Thursdays report...... FWIW

If I had the numbers, I wouldn't be here chatting with this forum.  I'd own the world.  I am giving my opinion, based on the world situation, the "old numbers" (which we all have), and the historical  supply and demand picture.  Most of the time I am wrong, but sometimes I am right.  I believe we will see corn in the $4's before we see it in the $9's, and we will see beans in the $10's.  I am more bullish on beans than corn.