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Honored Advisor
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Tid bits

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   "Crimea had been part of Russia for centuries until 1954, when Soviet leader
Nikita Khrushchev transferred it to his native Ukraine. The move mattered
little until the 1991 Soviet collapse made Ukraine independent. Many residents
on Crimea appeared genuinely happy about rejoining Russia, although the vote
did take place after Russian-led troops seized control of the region."

Honored Advisor
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Re: Tid bits

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MARKET COMMENTARY March 24, 2014

 

Raymond Jenkins

 

Plus signs in corn, beans, and wheat today. Corn spread was operating in bull-spread mode, with May corn futures up 11 cents and new crop values up 7-8 on the day. Export inspections for corn at 45 million, almost 10 million greater than the average needed to meet the current projection for corn exports.

 

Wheat up 20 cents on a combination of fund strength, US weather concerns, and also an undercurrent of worry about the politics of the Ukraine/Crimea situation. I guess the reality is that we should not expect export activity in what could be an area of heightened political tension, or even worse, a war zone to be “business as usual”.

 

Soybeans having an up day, with old crop months leading the way higher. I think beans get the award for being the most confusing product to try and figure out right now.

 

Esteemed Advisor
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Re: Tid bits

The only confusing thing about the soybean market is that almost all of the market experts have been wrong about it for a couple of months.

Veteran Advisor
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Re: Tid bits

.........no doubt about her....soy has the clearist economic picture and balance sheet out of all of them...............funny how the market story tellers try to confound matters...................

Honored Advisor
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Grain News

•Corn prices finished with solid gains today.

–Export inspections came in above trade expectations.

–Cold weather across the central U.S. continues to increase concerns that the U.S. corn planting season may have a late start.

–Nearby ethanol futures hit the highest level since July of 2011.

•Soybeans were supported by the rally in corn and wheat.

–Export inspections were at the low end of trade expectations.

–China continues to be searching for opportunities to cancel, delay or sell South American beans that they have purchased.

•Wheat prices were the upside leader in today’s trade.

–The forecast for the SW plains remains dry.

–Crop ratings reported by individual states could drop again today.

Veteran Advisor
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Re: Tid bits

i read that wheat ratings declined from farm futures - but it did not quantify -- where do y'all get the state reports before NASS resumes in Apr?

 

thanks

Veteran Advisor
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Re: Tid bits

Maybe it's just me, yet I find it more difficult to make decisions that are essentially the opposite of what the "experts" are saying, especially when it comes to imperfect information in an imperfect market, where one's tendency is to assume that the "experts" have access to better information.

Honored Advisor
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Re: Tid bits

 

typically means more rains and higher yields in the Midwest…..

 

 

 

US atmospheric scientists predict intense El Nino

Sarina Locke, Monday March 24, 2014 - 14:19 EDT
 

The sub surface temperature of the eastern Pacific Ocean is measuring an 'astounding' six degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

A team of US atmospheric scientists says that points to a major El Nino event forming to rival the record event nearly 20 years ago.

El Nino is associated with dry conditions and reduced monsoons in Australia and Indonesia, but wetter weather in Central America.

Paul E. Roundy, associate professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, New York, says there's been a series of westerly winds that amplify waves, moving warm currents of water thousands of kilometres and moving a surge of warm water from west to east. 

That pushes the warm water to considerable depths.

"It's close to a 70 or 80 per cent chance of a major event," Associate Professor Roundy said.

"The Climate Prediction Centre would disagree and set the rates lower.

"But I'm thinking in the context of what we observe in the ocean right now, is consistent with that kind of major event developing.

"No guarantee! But it is consistent.

"The only time that (the six-degree warming) has ever happened before, this time of the year, was in that March of 1997 event. So it highlights the risk, even though there's only one event like that.

"With only one event we don't have a long enough historical record of similar events to say what fraction of them become El Ninos.

"It's 'suggestive' of a major El Nino, but since there's only one past event we have to compare with, we can't know for sure what that outcome would be, so we have to look at models for assistance, and yet the models have deficiencies in predicting the outcome."

Professor Roundy is disappointed that some of the to measure temperature in the equatorial Pacific are now missing.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is releasing its own update on the El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO on Tuesday March 25, but the in early March points to 'more than 4 °C above average around 150 m depth in the central Pacific'.

"This.... pool of warmer-than-average water (is) developing and progressing across the Pacific," the BOM said. 

"Such down welling Kelvin wave events can be driven by westerly winds over the western tropical Pacific. 

"If this pool of warmer-than-average sub-surface water rises to the surface in the eastern tropical Pacific, this may lead to surface warming and the formation of an El Nino."

Honored Advisor
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Re: Tid bits

As there is a skift of snow on the ground here from yesterday's little snow events...

 

 


The Winter Boots

Did you hear about the teacher who was helping one of her pupils put on his boots? He asked for help and she could see why. Even with her pulling, and him pushing, the little boots still didn't want to go on. By the time they got the second boot on, she had worked up a sweat.

She almost cried when the little boy said, 'Teacher, they're on the wrong feet.'

She looked, and sure enough, they were.

Unfortunately, it wasn't any easier pulling the boots off, than it was putting them on.

She managed to keep her cool as, together, they worked to get the boots back on, this time on the correct feet.

He then announced, 'These aren't my boots.'

She bit her tongue, rather than get right in his face and scream, 'Why didn't you say so?' like she wanted to.

Once again, she struggled to help him pull the ill-fitting boots off his little feet.

No sooner had they got the boots off when he said, 'They're my brother's boots. But my Mom made me wear 'em today.'

Now she didn't know if she should laugh or cry.

But she mustered up what grace and courage she had left to wrestle the boots BACK onto his feet again.

Helping him into his coat, she asked, 'Now, where are your mittens?

He said, 'I stuffed 'em in the toes of my boots.'

 
 
The doctors say she will be able to rejoin society within the next year or so.
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Re: Tid bits