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Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,042
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Tid bits

Something to watch for...

 

On the soybean side of things we are short and still exporting. Most have a feeling we are going to import lots of beans.

 

Might not be so many beans as it will be bean meal.

 

Argentina seems to be in the export market again. Sooner or later they will sell them, the price has come up.

 

They are not so much a soybean exporter as a soy oil and meal exporter.

 

The Smithfields, Tysons, etc can eliminate a middleman by just importing bean meal direct.

Will not need the beans as whole beans, they just need the meal portion mostly.

 

It is also just a little harder to track them on the inflow chart.

 

Tonight there is about a 65 cent price difference between central Indiana and central Iowa on cash beans, Indiana is higher.

 

5+ months till harvest. Lots of unknowns, even more guesses.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,042
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Tid bits

--------------------------------------------------------------    

MARKET COMMENTARY March 28, 2014

 

Raymond Jenkins

 

Another day session with some rally potential that eventually faded by the end of the day. Price action this week is perfectly suited for those who want us to watch offers. These 4-5 cent rallies don’t last long enough most days to allow us time to return calls from those who want us to call “when it gets there” instead of leaving us firm offers we can execute.

 

 

The return of the large funds to the world of commodities changed the landscape in the last 100 days, especially in corn futures where a sizable short position turned into an even more sizable long position.

 

Only you can decide your own personal level of risk tolerance as we get ready for the Monday reports.

 

All I know is that when corn was 4.25-4.50, there was an incredible amount of hoping that we would get the chance to sell $5 cash corn again this year.

 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,259
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Tid bits

perhaps the world soy stocks/use ratio will also be near 50 yr lows by August's end...by the time we eat up SA supplys - no pun intended.

 

the 16-30 day is forecast below to much below avg - temp-wise through 90% of the belt.

 

**couldn't put up prop map--believe it's from CWG.

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,042
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Tid bits

The next 30 days are not the problem in the major part of the corn belt, it is after that, that it matters 

 

No where late yet. Too early To be worried. Big rain event for later next week.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,259
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Tid bits

correct,

 

just that the longer it remains cold, the probability that the early birds (10-23 Apr, etc.) get seeded in-decreases so they're pushed out to later---and so on.....not a problem yet - simply a trend to observe.

 

At this point - pretty safe to rule out a 2012 early planting schedule as an analogue.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Tid bits

FWIW, If Ray is correct and every farmer is waiting for $5.00 for their old corn,  When it gets there, there will be massive selling and by the time the corn gets to $5.25 or so, there won't be much left in the farmer's bins to sell.......That's what I am waiting for!   :smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,163
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: Tid bits

RT, once you sell out at $5.25, I'm pulling the trigger at $5.35. HA HA I know, one in every crowd.
Veteran Contributor
KY_TOBDirt
Posts: 78
Registered: ‎09-01-2013
0

Re: Tid bits

I didn't wait for 5.25, sold half of what I had on basis contract yesterday for 5.20, took a little profit
before Mondays report!

Wish I could share some of the rain we got with you guys that need it, was gonna start spraying first of the week
had .50 in. Thursday night, 1 in. last night.

A fews guys started putting smoke (82%) down this week.
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Tid bits

Shaggy,  Good one!    But I'm not waiting until $5.25 to finish sales.........I'm waiting on that price to START sales........:smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,042
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Tid bits

Did I hear something?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yep I did, I did,

 

 

It was a pin dropping

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."