03-28-2014 06:29 PM
Something to watch for...
On the soybean side of things we are short and still exporting. Most have a feeling we are going to import lots of beans.
Might not be so many beans as it will be bean meal.
Argentina seems to be in the export market again. Sooner or later they will sell them, the price has come up.
They are not so much a soybean exporter as a soy oil and meal exporter.
The Smithfields, Tysons, etc can eliminate a middleman by just importing bean meal direct.
Will not need the beans as whole beans, they just need the meal portion mostly.
It is also just a little harder to track them on the inflow chart.
Tonight there is about a 65 cent price difference between central Indiana and central Iowa on cash beans, Indiana is higher.
5+ months till harvest. Lots of unknowns, even more guesses.
03-28-2014 06:30 PM
MARKET COMMENTARY March 28, 2014
Another day session with some rally potential that eventually faded by the end of the day. Price action this week is perfectly suited for those who want us to watch offers. These 4-5 cent rallies don’t last long enough most days to allow us time to return calls from those who want us to call “when it gets there” instead of leaving us firm offers we can execute.
The return of the large funds to the world of commodities changed the landscape in the last 100 days, especially in corn futures where a sizable short position turned into an even more sizable long position.
Only you can decide your own personal level of risk tolerance as we get ready for the Monday reports.
All I know is that when corn was 4.25-4.50, there was an incredible amount of hoping that we would get the chance to sell $5 cash corn again this year.
03-28-2014 10:09 PM
perhaps the world soy stocks/use ratio will also be near 50 yr lows by August's end...by the time we eat up SA supplys - no pun intended.
the 16-30 day is forecast below to much below avg - temp-wise through 90% of the belt.
**couldn't put up prop map--believe it's from CWG.
03-28-2014 11:29 PM
just that the longer it remains cold, the probability that the early birds (10-23 Apr, etc.) get seeded in-decreases so they're pushed out to later---and so on.....not a problem yet - simply a trend to observe.
At this point - pretty safe to rule out a 2012 early planting schedule as an analogue.
03-29-2014 07:34 AM
FWIW, If Ray is correct and every farmer is waiting for $5.00 for their old corn, When it gets there, there will be massive selling and by the time the corn gets to $5.25 or so, there won't be much left in the farmer's bins to sell.......That's what I am waiting for!
03-29-2014 10:42 AM