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Time into Price

 
Advisor
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Re: Time into Price

136i9653AED2D0778F06

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Re: Time into Price

buck, so whats your play given this intersection of price and time? enquiring minds want to know. i believe we have made a bottom as well. just curious for more of your thoughts. d7

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Re: Time into Price

price time? there is no magicical systen out there, especially harmonica ken.

 

the fundanmental trend dominaites.

 

artifice 

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Re: Time into Price

Of course fundemental trends dominate,  So do technical trends.  Everything fails,  time into price can be no different, but sometimes it works.

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Re: Time into Price

You know Artiface...you continue to express a harmonic tone that sounds alot like finger nails on chalkboards. You should be more careful when you belittle what you have not worked hard enough to understand.

 

If you read my post to Vince on the "gann time" post below...you might realize that statistically driven decision making tools built around a focus on time and emotion can be quite helpful. Open your mind...it is a vast,  complex, and chaotic world we live in as mere men/women. Of course there is no magic formula....duh....it is a game of probabilities. Most business's that fail do so when they get on the wrong end of the math, not because they can't produce a widget or bushel of corn.

 

At this moment, with prices having declined below our insurance price floors, there is no rational reason to maintain hedge coverage and be net short 200% BEFORE the crop is produced. Yield risk is very real in a year like this one. There of course is a risk in that prices could decline further. We are well positioned to survive and prosper if that  occurs, which it could. Just add the hedge profits from sales made in march, april, and may 2008 to now on top of the ins floor....that would be tough to take ol boy.

 

Unlike many who post here....for years I have laid out strategies in advance and even my identity is public. Some good...some not. You have done neither.

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Re: Time into Price

Vince:

   The concern I have with the time in to price that you have calculated is simple. The market has traded on that line 10 times since 4/14. Why weren't those other dates just as valid. Yes, it is of great value to know that the market traded below the trendline and then broke the trendline and the the trendline became support under the market. Trendines have always been good at that technique. Determining which date will end the advance or decline is more complicated and more challenging.

   Are you able to do the 1/8 points and fib ratios in time on the futures source site?

If not, send me your email address and I'll email you the charts that I refer to in the post below.

 

Keep up the good work. Hope your crops are looking good. ( I know, you and MN John always have great crops :-)   )

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Re: Time into Price

Ken I have changed email sources

 

Go to

 

Vrbuck@live.com

Senior Advisor
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Re: Time into Price

Obviously, your "solution" proved quite accurate back in June.

And much to Artiface's dismay, management paid pretty big

returns last year.

 

Just wondering, do you have any price/time points in the

near future? Maybe around May 6th in wheat?

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Re: Time into Price

Few fall for the COUNTY FAIR   “magic cross” or 30 other forecasting schemes.
 But some do. Venus crossed Mercury, the
moon was full and wooly bears died.

And hogs crashed instead of rising!   Or
IE. s copper parabolic and a short at 1.40 or 4.40

 

Good marketers help fulfill demand and pay down debt.