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06-11-2010 04:10 PM
You know Artiface...you continue to express a harmonic tone that sounds alot like finger nails on chalkboards. You should be more careful when you belittle what you have not worked hard enough to understand.
If you read my post to Vince on the "gann time" post below...you might realize that statistically driven decision making tools built around a focus on time and emotion can be quite helpful. Open your mind...it is a vast, complex, and chaotic world we live in as mere men/women. Of course there is no magic formula....duh....it is a game of probabilities. Most business's that fail do so when they get on the wrong end of the math, not because they can't produce a widget or bushel of corn.
At this moment, with prices having declined below our insurance price floors, there is no rational reason to maintain hedge coverage and be net short 200% BEFORE the crop is produced. Yield risk is very real in a year like this one. There of course is a risk in that prices could decline further. We are well positioned to survive and prosper if that occurs, which it could. Just add the hedge profits from sales made in march, april, and may 2008 to now on top of the ins floor....that would be tough to take ol boy.
Unlike many who post here....for years I have laid out strategies in advance and even my identity is public. Some good...some not. You have done neither.
06-11-2010 04:22 PM
The concern I have with the time in to price that you have calculated is simple. The market has traded on that line 10 times since 4/14. Why weren't those other dates just as valid. Yes, it is of great value to know that the market traded below the trendline and then broke the trendline and the the trendline became support under the market. Trendines have always been good at that technique. Determining which date will end the advance or decline is more complicated and more challenging.
Are you able to do the 1/8 points and fib ratios in time on the futures source site?
If not, send me your email address and I'll email you the charts that I refer to in the post below.
Keep up the good work. Hope your crops are looking good. ( I know, you and MN John always have great crops :-) )
04-22-2011 12:02 PM
Obviously, your "solution" proved quite accurate back in June.
And much to Artiface's dismay, management paid pretty big
returns last year.
Just wondering, do you have any price/time points in the
near future? Maybe around May 6th in wheat?
07-28-2011 11:07 AM
Few fall for the COUNTY FAIR “magic cross” or 30 other forecasting schemes.
But some do. Venus crossed Mercury, the
moon was full and wooly bears died.
And hogs crashed instead of rising! Or
IE. s copper parabolic and a short at 1.40 or 4.40
Good marketers help fulfill demand and pay down debt.