08-22-2013 01:55 PM
Today's rain was in excess of a billion dollar rain. (closer to 2 Billion)
Don't you just love the new inflated #'s?
13,000,000,000 x 10.5 cents = 1 BILLION 300 million loss on the corn side alone
3,000,000,000 x 17 cents = another 1/2 BILLION
Sure do wish I had gotten more than just down prices. . like actually gotten the rain.
08-22-2013 03:59 PM
The above three descriptions are three of the four things I feel about the markets this year.
From now on anytime I see someone needing help or something similar especially along the road the first thing I will do a check to see what they do for a living.
Grain traders, Crop scouts, and grain buyers, and others that have had a part in this fiasco will be left where they stand. Mainly because the overwhelming feeling that trumps the top three is...,
08-22-2013 04:00 PM
You put in the price change but what about the yield change? Isn't the yield change why the price changed? And, I sure do wish it had rained here; seems we often miss out.
08-22-2013 04:07 PM
The yield change is still a subjective thing. with an early frost/freeze that northern Iowa rain thing won't mean much.
At my place with no rain it went down some more.
08-22-2013 04:35 PM
Love these comments. Since about 4% of the grain belt got rain I think the Shagme's comments and math are extremely accurate. Just giving us a chance to buy it lower :-)
Did you listen BIG BOB's comments about the PoorFarmer crop tour results meaning the USDA's yield numbers are low.
Well, I'll be kind.....that is just a MORONIC way to interpret data that suggests the crop is below average in almost every state (except SD and all the southern states I suppose).
Hope BOB is selling lots of calls and buying lots of puts. (I need some sucker to sell puts too) :-)
08-22-2013 04:38 PM
Almost forgot, if 30% of nIA is PP, treekiller has a point, they just got 3" of rain on their cover crops. Good for next year, but doesn't add many bushels to this year. :-)
08-22-2013 06:27 PM
Mike, Time, Tree farmer ----same observation here ---rain fell today in areas that needed it the least, as far as - total US C/B Prod.
just a friendly attempt at uplifting and BELIEVING that reality prevails in mkt price, in the end --try turning that p.o. energy into patience.
also, historically - back 30-50 years.....mkts behaved very similarly as other analogue planting/growing years.