09-09-2013 07:37 AM - edited 09-09-2013 08:01 AM
Corn trade continues to digest NEW record yields being harvested by many producers in the Delta and Ohio River Valley area (specifically southern IL, IN and northern KY). This talk is obviously keeping many of the larger traders leaning over the short-side of the boat. Their contention is, even though current supplies are extremely tight, a 13.8 to 14.1 billion bushel crop is just around the corner. Lets also keep in mind many of the larger money-magers believe current USDA demand numbers are over-stated as well, especially exports. Most well versed S&D experts will tell you, since global inventories have grown, and most of the foreign exporters have limited storage space, they will be much quicker than US suppliers (with ample storage) to lower prices in an attempt to move supply. Meaning once again, our inability to be the worlds "low cost" provider will ultimately weigh on demand. This logic is hard to argue and has the bears thinking exports are still overstated by some 200-300 million bushels. Personally I am NOT as pessimistic or as bearish as most... I am not saying I have become bullish, I just think additional downside pressure may be short lived. Below are my Top-10 reasons:
09-09-2013 09:11 AM - edited 09-09-2013 10:45 AM
An "A" for effort on this post.....In rethinking this, I believe you missed the number 1 reason..................USDA's numbers could be WRONG........
09-09-2013 12:36 PM - edited 09-09-2013 12:40 PM
95* again in central IA today. heat continues MO, IL - and they've had 24 or 19 drops of rain ( can't remember exactly) in the last 30-40 days.
some Corn will have gone from milk directly to dent in the last 2-3 weeks.
09-10-2013 07:56 AM
Demand in corn also remains in question, with most bears continuing to think "exports" are overstated. As I have mentioned the past several weeks, I am not in the same camp. Even though I understand the low cost supplies that are available from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine, I am just not 100% sold on the fact US corn exports are going to move lower from here.
A crazy week of weather is in store for Argentina and southern Brazil. Featuring extreme heat, a rapid cooldown and bouts of rain, the week will changeable to say the least in many areas of southern South America. In the Southern Hemisphere, it’s the start of spring, however a taste of summer will bring unusually warm weather across the continent. Then, cold air is supposed to move late this week and next week and it may get cold enough for some places in the northern half of Argentina to experience a frost or Freeze Sunday night and Monday morning. The potential for a frost or freeze is not good news for the wheat crops according to grain analysts in SA. The wheat has entered its reproductive phase and a frost or freeze at this point in its growing cycle could hinder growth.