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Frequent Contributor
ChaseOrstad
Posts: 82
Registered: ‎06-05-2013
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Tracking The US Corn Crop

Struck me as a thought provoking chart

 

US corn conditions began to decline during the week ending July 14 (see red line, above) due to short-term dryness in the southwestern Corn Belt. Nearly one-quarter (22%) of the corn in Kansas was rated very poor to poor on July 14, up from 14% the previous week. Still, this year’s national corn condition (66% good to excellent in mid-July) represents a dramatic improvement from this time last year (31%), when the final U.S. corn yield of 123.4 bushels per acre was the lowest since 1995.

Corn Condition index.jpg

 

Source: USDA

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Tracking The US Corn Crop

You're right - it's thought provoking. Have you thought about the fact that the corn crop is two to three weeks behind, the the water requirements for the crop are two - three weeks behind, and that your useless chart is probably also 2 - 3 weeks behind?

Wake up people!!!! Get off those rose colored glasses and start living in the real world, not some made of thing of charts and graphs. The are not accurate!!!!! Your spreading half truths in the hope that you can stall this market long enough until it rains.

Listen to me - there is NO perceivable rain in the forecast. Next weeks, AGAIN, next weeks event, 7 - 10 days from now, already is looking dryer.

Y'all better wake up to reality, and quit trying to snow the US farmer with this propaganda that is bs.

Jen
Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 9,132
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Tracking The US Corn Crop

Looks like 2013 is starting to track 2011 conditions, it doesn`t look like any of the years "improve" this late in the season. So, to be generous split the difference between the 2011 and 2010 yields of 150b/a X 85 million harvested acres and the crop gets no better than 12.75 billion until proven otherwise.  The thing is, if we will be in "pipeline" at the end of August, some of the "new crop" will have to be sucked into 2012`s production to get the hogs, chickens and ethanol over the finishline.

"Courage is fear that has said it`s prayers"
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Tracking The US Corn Crop

could not have said it more eloquently or succintly, Chase.

This year, in particular, NASS weekly crop conditions enumerate very little reality about the actual condition(s) of Corn. Disregarding the time vector irradicates the credibility of ratings to virtually nill.

 

c-x-1

Senior Contributor
SouthWestOhio
Posts: 519
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Tracking The US Corn Crop

I find the 2013 index starting out well below the 2011 index troubling. I don't believe we should compare this year to 2011.
Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011

Re: Tracking The US Corn Crop

Trend yield since 2009.     112.    We are above trend like they say. #s lie but you can't count without them.

 

So let it be written

So let I be done

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,134
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Tracking The US Corn Crop

Post from Jen
 
 
You're right - it's thought provoking. Have you thought about the fact that the corn crop is two to three weeks behind, the the water requirements for the crop are two - three weeks behind, and that your useless chart is probably also 2 - 3 weeks behind?
 
You are right for your area being behind - in planting and water requirements - the corn don't need it at this time - BUT this is what the corn needs now - is some hot weather , it will help it root down , corn roots will grow down looking for water - So if it drys up some in Aug. Sept. it will have a chance . BTW late panted corn don't need as many GDD's as if it were planted early - example - if you plante a 2800 GDD corn here in Indiana - if you planted it -- say after May31 - it would only need 2600 GGD to maturity
As far as the chart be'n 2 or 3 weeks behind - if you would have taken off your doom and gloom glasses and followed the red line down for 2013 - you would see that it came out today .

Wake up people!!!! Get off those rose colored glasses and start living in the real world, not some made of thing of charts and graphs. The are not accurate!!!!! Your spreading half truths in the hope that you can stall this market long enough until it rains.
 
How can you say the charts are not accurate ? Looks pretty close to me - compared to last year - would say spot on .
And spreading half truths ? WTH here ? It's a snap shot of todays crops -- right - not the future - today . 
 
 


Listen to me - there is NO perceivable rain in the forecast. Next weeks, AGAIN, next weeks event, 7 - 10 days from now, already is looking dryer.
 Jenny , Jenny , Jenny - you as well As I know that can change tomorrow , now if it had been dry for 2 or 3 weeks- then that would be pucker  time for sure . but not yet .

Y'all better wake up to reality, and quit trying to snow the US farmer with this propaganda that is bs.
 
Thats  last line is pretty funny - you tell them girl  friend .
 
Got to check the grill - don't want to burn up my fish --lol
Jen
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jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Tracking The US Corn Crop

Oh, I'm not too worried about what I see in the weather. On that one time will prove me right.

I worked for the government. Loved my job, but they were sort of a knee jerk reactionary place.

That's what I'm trying to avoid here. A knee jerk reaction where all of a sudden the marketplace is now overwhelmed with this bullish news that takes the market limit for two days. This market wants farmers to sell. Fine. Give us real reason to sell based on what we're seeing in reality. That reality is 3 weeks with no rain. That reality is that the next 7 days- no rain. The reality is that the next event on the horizon is weak at best, with coverage of maybe 25% of the corn belt. Do you see rain on the radar, other than popup showers. I don't. Show me the rain.

Jen
Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,134
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Tracking The US Corn Crop

Boy thats what I'd like to see a good  knee jeck up to - oh - how about 6.25 for Jan -lol  i will see If I can geta picture or some rain foryou today -- :smileywink:

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jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Tracking The US Corn Crop

Ok - send me the picture - WITH the radar shot to go with it

Jen