02-11-2013 11:07 AM
Interesting corn yield chart, if the drought continues you can pencil the entire state of Iowa in for a yield drop of 141bu in 2012, down to 105bu in 2013. We used up all our subsoil moisture in 2012 and in 2013 unless something changes, Iowa could even see a corn yield of below 100bu. My drain tiles quit running over 9 months ago. This fall after harvest they didn't run at all, this is the 1st time since I started buying farmland in 1986 that I have seen this. And that includes the 1988 drought year as well. If the drought continues, corn in my area will be so short in supply that the hog guys will have no choice except to cut back. And the local ethanol plants will also have to cut back too. Will be a very interesting 2013 crop year, that's for sure.
02-11-2013 07:57 PM
If the buyers cut back it may not be over supply but over price. By that, I mean that whether they are 10 bushels short or 1000 bushels short, at XX price they may quit buying no matter what. Kind of a lid on the market. We could have a short crop and end up with grain in the bin. I don't want to pass up $8 sales and have corn left over that I am asking $10 for.
When we look around us and think of the subsoil, we don't get too optimistic about the yield, but the averages are that we will not have another drought next year.
So, how do you market? Based on gut feel or what has happened in the past? Tough call.