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Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 852
Registered: ‎07-19-2010

Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

OK, here we go with the latest and greatest. What I'm seeing on both the 6 - 10 and the 8 - 14 day forecasts still don't seem to be accurate. The front out west now - still a non-event. Looks to bring showers mainly confined to the Canadian boundary from MN to MI. The big change though, is the event that was forecast for a week from now. It is removed and has been replaced with high pressure system that moves in from over ND on Saturday. South of the system, maybe eastern SD or SW IA could get some light showers, again, very scattered. By next Wednesday, another system drops out of Canada in basically the same spot, and reinforces the high still exerting its presence over the entire Midwest.

This one is ugly folks. Check it out yourselves on weather.unisys.com. There it is. IF this happens, and at this point I would give this thing a pretty good chance of happening, it could be check mate. 12bbl would be off the books. I'm not making this up. This is as real as it gets. European model agrees, but even somewhat drier. Show me the rain. Show me I'm wrong someone. Because if I'm not, this market, like I have said for a long time, is wrong in its thinking. And it could harm our markets for a while. End users, get covered now. Make sure that you have physical, you can't feed paper.

Jen
Senior Contributor
elcheapo
Posts: 223
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

Now if I only knew what I was looking
At !

I think somewhere on the NOAA they had all
The models

So why don't the Chicago people look at
Theses ?

And today announce a bumper crop ?
Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,324
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

[ Edited ]

 

 

Saw these two things today:

 

IMG_20130717_132308_494.jpg

 

This new bin to help hold this bumper crop is just south of Ft Dodge, Iowa just off of 169

 

Notice the PP field in the foreground.

 

The next two towns south had these kind of #'s on the bank marquee's (next one was 102)

 

Notice the color of the yards.

 

IMG_20130717_134916_144.jpg

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,324
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

crash.jpg

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Reader
hoosierchick
Posts: 1
Registered: ‎07-17-2013
0

Re: Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

Jen, quit sugar coating it. 12 billion, no way. 10, not a chance. 5 billion if we're lucky. Could this be the first year we raise zero? Look at all the acres that never got planted. I know of a couple thousand for sure, that's a lot out of 97 million. Most of the rest of the acres were either killed by all that rain, or wait was it the drought? Whatever actually managed to get planted and survived the flood and drought will surely get killed by the early frost that's coming, do you know how late the crop is? And those of us with the boots on the ground are the only ones that know the truth. This will be easy money. Do you know how cheap $10 calls are? I'm going to load up. As soon as the trade figures out what we know, we will blow through $10 so fast it will make your head spin. I'll be retired in months. Shhh, but let's not tell everyone what we know.
Senior Contributor
giolucas
Posts: 1,053
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

I heard all of that ........the question is would you bet the farm on it??? All of it???

Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 852
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

I'm telling you what I know. No secrets. I show you what I'm looking at and ask you to show me I'm wrong. I told you basically who I am, what I've done, and when my auction is.

I'm not so foolish as to bet the farm. I'm wagering a $20000.00 loss against what could be a $150000.00 gain right now. I am long everything. I have my money bet against what I've been saying. I'm not a meteorologist, told you from the start my credentials. I've told you why I'm on here posting. Tell you what, if IA gets their 2" of general rain this week like the talking heads on Saturday said, I'll quit giving updates. Fair Enough?

Jen
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 1,974
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

Geez, if everyone makes that kind of promise that's posting now this board would fall silent in the next few months :smileyhappy:

 

 

Senior Contributor
Wrestler
Posts: 208
Registered: ‎01-19-2013
0

Re: Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

Rain makes grain. Never been any different. Sunday night is gonna be wild. I have placed my bets and gonna stick with them. Right or wrong. Good luck to all.

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 2,904
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Trouble, Big, BIG Trouble

[ Edited ]

so hoosierchick,

 

if you pay $6.00 in commissions--the tens are going for $6.00 = $12.00

 

you buy $20k worth = 1666 Dec 1000calls... and if it trades to $15.00 by Thanksgiving, you'll bank about $41.65 Million....good trade!