06-16-2011 06:00 AM
A couple of interesting take-aways here:
1) Note the larger yield penalties ( admitedly these dates are for central ILL )
2) The 99% planted leaves wide interpretation, as if prevents elected or crop switched, it would count as 100% completed (ie none further to seed to crop x)
Realize there are a lot of anecdotal evidence in this forum which can refute a University finding, but its a helpful insight nonetheless.....
06-16-2011 07:59 AM
Excellent points, the same can be said of `good to excellent crop ratings` in the summer. They rate the apperance of the crop, but as professor El Taylor once said `there`s a difference between growth and development`, there was a 350 lb lineman in his class with a confused look on his face and El thought, ` now this boy has a whole lot of growth but not much development`.
06-16-2011 08:33 AM
I am not supposed to be cheerleading for grains, so I will throw a comment out based on agronomics...........a large portion of some key growing areas went in the ground in the Middle of May.........this does not guarantee a yield loss..........however just as that chart shows, there is a decent likely hood that yields will take a hit at some level..........and it could be as much as 15%...........also even the early planted stuff went in late April early May...........thats border line to catch top line yields.........once you get into May 10th time frame you are starting the slide........A lot of corn went in around or after that...........
Every year is different, but the stats don't lie and planting date for corn is something that has been studied awful hard over a lot of years..........ask anyone when they start planting corn, answer usually is as soon as its fit not well MID-MAY...........and there justification is usually well the early corn usually does better.........
Just some thoughts..........
06-16-2011 09:17 AM
I was reading an agronomists blog a few weeks ago. He talked about the late planting and then picked out four years where there was late planting. Half of the time, there was a yield blemish. The other half of the time, there was not a yield blemish. It all depends on the summer. Considering central IL is further south than where I'm located, I'm guessing their average frost date is later than mine. On a typical year, there's a lot of corn planted after the 15th of May around here. I'm also guessing the early corn does better in central IL typically because it beats the heat in terms of pollination. There's a lot of growing season left.
In our hotter and drier years, the early planted corn around here yields better. We were finally able to break through our drought cycle here three years ago. Since the drought has broken, we've had a lot cooler growing season with more rainfall. In these past three years, the later planted corn has outyielded the early planted corn. Last year for instance, the corn planted in late April was almost a disaster. The best corn harvested around here last year was planted around the 25th of May. In 2009, we had an extremely cool and wet summer. Around here, wet summers also mean lots and lots of hail. I saw guys replanting corn on the fourth of July. While this corn didn't see great yields, it still made corn.
IMO, the acres planted at this point in time mean a lot more than anything else. The trade may have their focus only on yield, but I think this is a dangerous game to be playing in the first two weeks of June. The biggest question I have with regards to the upcoming Acreage Report is whether or not the USDA has already showed their hand when they reduced acres in the Supply and Demand Report?