03-25-2013 01:26 PM - edited 03-25-2013 01:28 PM
IT'S THE GRANDDADDY OF THEM ALL, THIS THURSDAY!!!
USDA Report Information Schedule:
On Thursday, the USDA will release its U.S. 2013 Prospective Plantings and
Grain Stocks Reports at 11:00am CT. Watch for the numbers and trade reaction, right here in Marketing Talk.
--Near record corn (97.0 million) and record-high soybean acres (78.5 million)
--For Quarterly Stocks, corn is seen at 5.0 billion bushels and 948 million bushels.
What are your guesses? What part of the Reports will you be watching?
Reminder: Watch the CME Group's Pre-Report Briefing on Wednesday, March 27, 2013 at 2:30pm here in Marketing Talk. What do the analysts think the report will say? Watch it live, right here in Marketing Talk.
03-25-2013 02:00 PM
No one knows less about this stuff than me, my gut says it will be a bullish report, because not enough rationing of old crop has been done. New corn hasn`t been sold by farmers, $6 would probably shake alot loose. USDA`s job is to make things balance and that`s what it will take. Crop ins guarantee is $5.65, and locally new corn is $5.30 not many would be interested contracting +30¢ below ins guarantees. On the otherhand elevators really drag their feet at paying much over $7.50 old corn and fiddle with the basis. Just my 2¢
03-25-2013 02:45 PM
Most important # will be the stocks #...... ANY thing at or above 5.0 bil on corn and we drop like a rock to the bottom of the trading range......Below 5.0 and we are off to the races on old and most likely drags new along........
Second will be the acre report but that will be trump by weather very soon as trade looks at when the corn gets in the ground and what the rain and cold will be doing to it....... FWIW...... p-oed
03-25-2013 06:59 PM
I am a farmer, and I hope that the report is very bearish. If prices drop like a rock as has been suggested, then it would really discourage any farmer not only to plant less acreage, but any huge applications of overpriced nitrogen above what is really needed would be discouraged. What farmer in his right mind would compound his expenses(,fertilizer,) to produce more product that will be worth less? The best thing that could happen for the farmers would be a report that would discourage production.
Anyone trading on such speculative figures put out by USDA kinda deserves what they get. No-one has any idea what will happen with weather around the globe this summer. Good luck traders!!!
03-25-2013 07:10 PM
Deblon, you sound discouraged. Agree or disagree, the markets for the most part are out of our control, so I usually don't let them persuade my decisions to much. That being said, I pay attention to the areas that are in my control which is right in line with your comment. I will not deprive any crop of fertilizer, I feel like if I'm going to try to raise a crop, make it the best crop it can be, why would I want to waste my efforts.
03-25-2013 07:46 PM
03-26-2013 09:50 AM - edited 03-26-2013 10:04 AM
For the old crop it ill be the stocks report ! This will be the game changer .
In the Jan 11 report implied that feed usage was up 13 % over last year .
How does that happen with the reduced animal numbers ??
Was last years quarter understated OR was this years Overstated ??
IF this years was overstated then could there be a downward correction ?
Then there's the DDG's - they are down with lower ethanol production = More corn fed and hereing that animal slaughter weight's are higher = more corn fed .
So what wil be the out come ? Flip a coin - I'm going with bear numbers - but hope not !
New Crop ? Non event here - big deal ! Even if we only plant 97 and harvest 88.2 at 150 , thats still 13.240 of corn = were screwed !
I know , I know , it's still dry in many parts of the country , but the trade don't have a clue sometimes about conditions and how they play a roll -- they only trade the USDA numbers ! And as we ll know they have to start somewhere -- with a LMAO here .
The USDA's job is not farming -- They are in price controll of food , Start high and hope for the best has to be there moto . LOL
Nothing like the Calm Before The Storm -- is there .
Have a great Day !