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Senior Contributor
ray h.
Posts: 406
Registered: ‎05-14-2010

USDA and Traders

    The USDA and the traders,crop counters and counterfeit fundamentals all at it again to arrange a situation for a roller coaster market.Any one have perfect conditions?Att home or globally?Not very many.Farmers now days with the info. highway can make a better prediction listening to themselves.Listening to the rest is like letting someone set us up for an April fools joke!

Advisor
Faust100F
Posts: 831
Registered: ‎11-09-2010
0

Re: USDA and Traders

It is going to be 90 degrees in Southern Iowa next week, not a lot of rain in the forecast.  It will be very interesting to see how much moisture we get from here on out.  If these numbskulls predictions come true, there is going to be some real belt tightening all the way around both (tenants and landlords) come renewal time for leases next year. 

 

However . . . since I am a contrarian most of the time . . . if the rain just quits . . . the great pridictors will have to tell me how crow tastes.   Because our government is so bogus anymore, and the stuff they put out at USDA and the FED is for the benefit of the traders, anything these jokers say has to be suspect!

 

John

Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,011
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: USDA and Traders

John can you answer this for me

 

Overall, for the winter,  October to May,  how did this winter compare to what you would consider normal for your Iowa------rain amount total, snow total, temperatures, etc.

 

Was the winter above normal precip. or just the last 6 weeks.--- or was that even above normal---- or just look that way after a dry year?????

sw
Senior Contributor
Wind
Posts: 269
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: USDA and Traders

sw,  central Iowa for the Winter season has had 55" of snow. And that is above normal.  Also, since Jan. 1,  We are around 4" above normal total precip.  It is hard to fathom how our soil moisture profile has been recharged since our dry summer last year.  It all came with very,very little run off. Some more corn will get planted early next week before more rain sets in.  It is very hard for anyone to predict what the weather will do here on out.  It just may turn off dry.  I'm not John, but this my 2 cents worth of info.

Windy here just now, had a 51mph gust a moment ago. 

Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,011
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: USDA and Traders

Great substitution Wind -------------- thank you.

sw
Senior Contributor
Artifice
Posts: 392
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: USDA and Traders

I am an old person, just not as old as many of you!!    Dairy growing up,  AG ECON bs, involved in the hedging bis, investments and other.   Quite frankly over the decades  I saw many, colleagues and clients get NEEDY and want to subscribe to some  advisory, more the need to have something to give confidence vs ever review and realizing it is all near useless ithas  become entertainment period.   Advice like a Ray J offers here now and then, puts/ combos locking in a range, fine that is strategic advice,, a good thing. But will the WX be good or bad or, or or, did the slow planting cause a -.1 change in yield potential. ??   ai is all  zeros.

 

I see  it as analysts try to seem interesting and come up witth some story that seems to make sense but is there anything there? Crops mostly grow, and   …  or you can see analysts oft are trying to not be 100% wrong vs trying to be right offering odds. It is subconscious,, 3 hot days in Jlu and they are afraid to be bearish, so they turn bullish.    ???

Anyone out there?

 

Scale sell your crop, use nutty news bumps to add some and try to NOT be a hero,

 

Better ideas?

 

artifice
Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,011
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: USDA and Traders

Artifice,

 

I do think there is something to be said for having a feel for the times.  Look how many years we went with the market bid up a little in the spring, then as the needs were committed, the market took the long summer slide into harvest wondering where the extra bushels will be stored-------- or "can we get that grain on the ground used by spring spoil??"--- but it changes sooner than we realize.

Even those over production years don't last forever----- droughts, wars,  economic depressions, boom cycles, technology gains, politics----------------- all change and cycle in and out.

 

If we view marketing over the last 113 years it is interesting how many different marketing senerios there have been.

 

It always seems like the present will last a long time, but looking back it was just a short while til things changed.

sw