02-13-2012 01:14 PM - edited 02-13-2012 01:15 PM
USDA reported (full story) its first look at 2012 prices today--"a projection of current economic conditions and normal weather, not a forecast."
Farm-level new crop corn is seen averaging $5 a bushel for the 2012-13 marketing year, "down from $6.70 for the current marketing year. The projection sees corn prices bottoming out at $4.30 a bushel in 2013-14 before beginning to rise again."
What's your take on such projections? I guess I'm not entirely clear either on the difference between a forecast and a projection.
02-13-2012 01:18 PM - edited 02-13-2012 01:19 PM
kind of a revisit of the old saying "high prices cure high prices"*
*remember the USDA has been mistaken before.
02-13-2012 01:25 PM
The chances of 94-95 mil A with a 164 bu yield are very low. You can't bring in marginal acres, have more COC, and expect to set near record yields. Possible yes, probable no. Maybe USDA should put odds on their yield guesses. I would like to see a graph of acres vs. yield.
02-13-2012 02:52 PM
94 million acres.......a yield of 164.......total production of 14.235 billion bushels.....those are some pretty lofty goals.
02-13-2012 03:47 PM
Did USDA ever predict 8.00 corn?........They might as well let the paperboy guess........
Just as good of a chance of being right....... Hec if anything they are to high on there 4 somthing #......
Prolly going to be a 3 in front of it?....... p-oed
02-13-2012 04:28 PM
don't think they ever mentioned $8 corn last year..............I know of some that got sold north of $8...........
don't think they ever mentioned $7 corn for this year.................I know of some that go sold north of $7 already............
they came out last Feb with some redicilous acreage numbers..............take a look at the chart I posted a year ago.........it has my guess (MT guess) and the Feb USDA numbers.............I pretty much nailed the corn and soya number...........especially if you look at harvested corn acres and back calculate using 92% instead of the 90.8% the USDA used this year.............you get 90.9M acres.........and soya were 75M..........
but they are the "experts"............
02-13-2012 07:24 PM
The market release triggered buy-stops for soybeans.
The soybean market traded higher attenuated by good turnover and buying activity. Reports of hot and dry conditions in the southern regions combined with a low baseline projection estimate sent the market into an upward path. Meal followed allowing oilshare to setback on meal / oil spread activity. In other options trade: ABN Amro purchased 1000 May bean calls at 25 ½ -26 ½ c. Newedge spread 500 May / March oil at 37 pts. Turnover which had been higher started to moderate during the session.
Grain futures worked higher though the upturn was that of following a stronger soy complex. March corn futures hit buy-stops when 5000 contracts were purchased shortly within a half hour of the open. Corn and wheat were followers today of a higher soybean and meal market. Corn spreads were firmer with March/May at 2 ¾ c, up 1c. March contracts in corn continue to liquidate / get spread forward.
AT 12:00 THE MARKETS HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD:
March beans - up 13 12.49 ¾ 12.36 ½
March meal - up 5.00 327.50 320.50
March oil - up .22 5295 5265
March corn - up 7 6.43 ½ 6.35 ¾
March wheat - up 5 6.40 ¾ 6.33 ¼
March canola - up 3.70 539.30 535.60
FUND Recap -
bot 5000 beans
bot 7000 corn
bot 2000 meal
bot 2000 oil
The markets continue to trade in wide ranges. We are still the midst of a weather market, for sure. If the market were certain of the production outlook forBrazil, we would not be at the top of the trading range. We continue to define these trading ranges, occasionally venturing to the upside of the most bullish markets for now, which is soybeans.
02-13-2012 07:26 PM
Here is a little survey I
2012 Corn planting plans
|Results current as of:|
13-Feb-12 07:16 PM