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Community Manager
John_Walter
Posts: 574
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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USDA projects $5 corn

[ Edited ]

USDA  reported (full story) its first look at 2012 prices today--"a projection of current economic conditions and normal weather, not a forecast."

 

Farm-level new crop corn is seen averaging $5 a bushel for the 2012-13 marketing year, "down from $6.70 for the current marketing year. The projection sees corn prices bottoming out at $4.30 a bushel in 2013-14 before beginning to rise again."

 

What's your take on such projections? I guess I'm not entirely clear either on the difference between a forecast and a projection.

 

Thoughts?

 

John

 


Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,324
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: USDA projects $5 corn

[ Edited ]

kind of a revisit of the old saying "high prices cure high prices"*

 

 

*remember the USDA has been mistaken before.

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Frequent Contributor
DKIL
Posts: 55
Registered: ‎08-02-2011
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Re: USDA projects $5 corn

The chances of 94-95 mil A with a 164 bu yield are very low.  You can't bring in marginal acres, have more COC, and expect to set near record yields.  Possible yes, probable no.  Maybe USDA should put odds on their yield guesses.  I would like to see a graph of acres vs. yield.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,434
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: USDA projects $5 corn

DKIL,    Agreed!

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Contributor
4speed
Posts: 7
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
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Re: USDA projects $5 corn

I guess there will be no weather problems somewhere this year.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,434
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: USDA projects $5 corn

94 million acres.......a yield of 164.......total production of 14.235 billion bushels.....those are some pretty lofty goals.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 396
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: USDA projects $5 corn

Did USDA ever predict 8.00 corn?........They might as well let the paperboy guess........

Just as good of a chance of being right....... Hec if anything they are to high on there 4 somthing #...... 

Prolly going to be a 3 in front of it?....... p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,183
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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The USDA says a lot of things........

don't think they ever mentioned $8 corn last year..............I know of some that got sold north of $8...........

 

don't think they ever mentioned $7 corn for this year.................I know of some that go sold north of $7 already............

 

they came out last Feb with some redicilous acreage numbers..............take a look at the chart I posted a year ago.........it has my guess (MT guess) and the Feb USDA numbers.............I pretty much nailed the corn and soya number...........especially if you look at harvested corn acres and back calculate using 92% instead of the 90.8% the USDA used this year.............you get 90.9M acres.........and soya were 75M..........

 

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=224380&posts=2#M1700013

 

but they are the "experts"............

Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,324
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: The USDA says a lot of things........

The market release triggered buy-stops for soybeans. 

 

SOY

The soybean market traded higher attenuated by good turnover and buying activity.  Reports of hot and dry conditions in the southern regions combined with a low baseline projection estimate sent the market into an upward path.  Meal followed allowing oilshare to setback on meal / oil spread activity.  In other options trade: ABN Amro purchased 1000 May bean calls at 25 ½ -26 ½ c.  Newedge spread 500 May / March oil at 37 pts.  Turnover which had been higher started to moderate during the session.

 

GRAINS

Grain futures worked higher though the upturn was that of following a stronger soy complex.    March corn futures hit buy-stops when 5000 contracts were purchased shortly within a half hour of the open.   Corn and wheat were followers today of a higher soybean and meal market.  Corn spreads were firmer with March/May at 2 ¾ c, up 1c.   March contracts in corn continue to liquidate / get spread forward. 

 

AT 12:00 THE MARKETS HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD:

                                                HIGH               LOW

March beans - up 13 12.49 ¾          12.36 ½

March meal - up 5.00            327.50            320.50

March oil - up .22                  5295               5265

March corn - up 7                  6.43 ½            6.35 ¾

March wheat - up 5               6.40 ¾            6.33 ¼                       

March canola - up 3.70         539.30            535.60                         

 

FUND Recap -

bot 5000 beans

bot 7000 corn

bot 2000 meal

bot 2000 oil

 

CLOSING COMMENTS

The markets continue to trade in wide ranges.  We are still the midst of a weather market, for sure.  If the market were certain of the production outlook forBrazil, we would not be at the top of the trading range. We continue to define these trading ranges, occasionally venturing to the upside of the most bullish markets for now, which is soybeans.

          

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,324
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: The USDA says a lot of things........

Here is a little survey I

 

2012 Corn planting plans

Have your corn yields from 2011 discouraged you from planting corn this coming spring??
Percentages
18.28125 percent4.6875 percent4.375 percent41.40625 percent9.53125 percent8.28125 percent13.4375 percent
18%5%4%41%10%8%13%
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
Vote Legend
1)Yes, I will decrease corn acres by more than 10%117
2)Yes, I will decrease corn acres by 6 to 10%30
3)Yes, I will decrease corn acres by 1 to 5%28
4)I will keep the same corn acres in 2012265
5)No, I will increase my corn acres by 1 to 5%61
6)No, I will increase my corn acres by 6 to 10%53
7)No, I will increase my corn acres by more than 10%86
Total Votes:640
Results current as of:
13-Feb-12 07:16 PM
60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."