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Advisor
Posts: 3,952
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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USDA says 88.0 mill soy acres

This morning, the USDA kicked off its annual Ag Outlook Forum. Here is our first report, from the even.

 

USDA Sees 88.0 Million Soybean Acres

 

 

What do you think:

 

A) Too high

 

B) To low

 

C) Right on right on

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,367
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: USDA says 88.0 mill soy acres

Or "D" I don`t have a clue   Smiley Happy   I don`t think around here there is a huge push towards beans, spring weather has a lot to do with it, if it`s dry even more corn acres will be planted around here.  I could see a guy that has been continuous corn for 5 yrs and his banker putting the brakes on a little might go to beans for less input expense. 

 

But you have to forward sell or buy a put or you run risk of beans going to $8.60, if you aren`t into that and a little contrarian, corn has the least downside risk. 

 

I hear the insurance guarantee is close to $4 on corn and a little over $10 on beans and they cut the "prevent plant" guarantee down to 55%.  So if it`s a wet spring there might be 100 million acres of beans being as the incentive to just collect a prevent plant corn check has been lowered   Smiley Happy

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,400
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: USDA says 88.0 mill soy acres

Yet another USDA prediction that sends the market lower...........I'll bet that dart didn't hit the dartboard once where it said that corn and soybean prices will be higher.  Smiley Wink

Advisor
Posts: 683
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Projection Not Prediction

I love you guys.  I make money on your market thinking.

Advisor
Posts: 683
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: USDA says 88.0 mill soy acres

"But you have to forward sell or buy a put or you run risk of beans going to $8.60, if you aren`t into that and a little contrarian, corn has the least downside risk. "

 

That's an interesting statement.  You are talking about net dollars per acre, I assume?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,367
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: USDA says 88.0 mill soy acres

Yes Jim, I`m less smart than anyone on marketing, but it sure looks like the next 50¢ move will be up on corn and down on beans.  Corn never had a rally (a lot of supply) but no rally and whatever it rally the pidley basis ate it up...   But with beans, they sure look to be on thin ice.  The beans, it looks like the lucky ducks sold x17 and got their $9.69 cash around here, now they`re $9.29 and dropping like a knife..easier to sell on the way up, but maybe we`ve seen our highs on the beans and maybe a guy should grab the falling knife?  ...before it falls on our heads   Smiley Happy 

Advisor
Posts: 683
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: USDA says 88.0 mill soy acres

You may be right on the direction of corn and soybeans.  If so, it would be unusual as beans are already more than 2.5:1 and one wonders how long that will last.