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07-16-2012 02:09 PM
Reminds me of that year in the 90's when corn broke out and went over $5 cash when the dollar still had some value. Only I think this is possibly of a way higher magnitude. Where the grains can end up is way higher than any number that most are bandying around if a worldwide shortage actually develops......I know my prospects for a normal corn crop in the paradise that is MN are dropping each day that a soaking rain doesn't come and I don't see much on the 10 day forcast to get excited over.
I think SF nailed it in the marketing article...you will know the top is in when you have at least two limit up moves back to back , and we have not seen anything like that yet.
Still time to get out of the shorts, guys.
07-16-2012 03:00 PM
Not good, we are going to cook the rest of the good crop, unless this is wrong.
07-16-2012 07:22 PM
07-16-2012 07:48 PM
Not trying to be an arss, but the old rules about limits no longer apply. There is no effective limit when you have unlimited option trading 21 hours a day. Also, a 40 cent limit in corn is roughly twice the old limits in terms of percentages of $8 corn.
10 cent limit in 1983 on 3.50 corn = 2.86% of value. 40 cent limit in 2012 on 7.50 corn = 5.33% or about twice as much.
In terms of volatility, we are already doing enough to meet the limit rules of old. The big limit up limit down days always came in the past after bullish crop reports, 83 for example. And in many instances they came AFTER the high was made earlier.
So, I will just statistically disagree with your posting because "THEY" (read Soros etal) have changed the rules immensely. I think this actually works in the farmers favor, but it should make the high come SOONER not LATER.
07-16-2012 09:20 PM
Yes tippingpoint, things are different now.
Had a buyer at an elevator tell me a couple years ago that they use to set off alarms and get real excited over a 2-3 cent move in corn.
Now, heck he said 20 cent moves are not enough to get excited about anymore.
07-17-2012 07:53 AM
Right now the weather trumps everything else.....no one knows what lies in store......if we go three weeks without significant rain in the north, tell me what the total number of bushels available are going to be. If you know that number, you can maybe guess what the price of corn will be.
My bet is that you don't know this anymore than anyone else does.
I will say this though, at some point everyone will be wrong except for maybe a handful of guys. If you think the top is in and have the stones to short this market, I take my hat off to you.
I am just glad that I am not short in front of a potential runaway train.