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12-30-2011 09:10 AM
wheat and soya were bullish.......corn neutral...........as mentioned soya will start closing the gap now and it appears it has started.........again, there is talk that corn exports will have to be adjusted up given the SA situation and overall mis-que of the USDA in general...........wheat probably close..........soya likely close too, unless SA gets real bad, in that case might see more business........
final thoughts for day........happy new year to you guys and "the other site", 2011 was crazy gut wrenching, but hopefully most sold some corn with a $7 or $8 and some soya with a $13 or $14...........
12-30-2011 10:44 AM
MZ, I appreciate your posts. Best to all in the New Year.
Now, for someone like you who spends a good deal of time pushing the numbers: Here is a question I have for you and everyone else. How do the equity markets handle the baby boomer effect? Soon large amount of retirees are going to be pulling their money out and there are not near as many workers to replace that money going in. Stocks are still driven by buyers and sellers, so less buyers is an uneven weight on the down side, correct? How long can cash mutual funds pay .01% and expect people to leave their money in? If the trend is your friend, the trend is down.
Back to ag.
The weather makes it hard to be a bear on the grains, they seem to have a very strong floor.
12-30-2011 11:36 AM
I read an article a few months back discussing savings rates and such over the different age gaps. According to the article, over half of the baby boomers you are concerned about have zero savings. I think the number they used for average in the babyboomer category was roughly $50,000. With this meager of a savings rate, I don't think babyboomers have a lot of money to withdraw from stocks or equities.
12-30-2011 12:51 PM
I doubt that these numbers can be attained, but I, like u guys, would like to know.
another aspect of this I would find interesting is the ratio of american investment in these funds compared to foreign investment.
Two things will probably pull this investment money away from markets more than demographics. Interest rates up and whenever the stock market gains reputability-(probably enterpreted as economic recovery.) we have been overstimulating a struggling economy for most of my life. Outside of techs development, we have been changing the formulas to "Look" better for nearly 40 years. Government numbers on inflation being the most obvoius rigging of data.
I was trying to find a smooth way to say what gored said-------I suspect the same.
12-30-2011 01:06 PM
Gored, what do you think the average savings rate is for those under 50?
The government used tax deferred 401K's to send money to stock market. It used zero percent interest to send money to the markets. How many rabbits are left in the hat? The only rabbit left is a healthy economy.
12-30-2011 01:25 PM
Gored, you are wrong on the way you use your figures and assign them to 'boomers'. Here's an article.
It's not unusual for a large portion oif youger wiorkers to not have any retirement. They begin saving after establishing themselves and buy houses, start families, etc. Unfortunately those who have been layed off and can't get a job may tap 'retirement savings ' as a last resort to carry on.
A significant portion of home owners are underwater on their homes -m even if they didn't participate in the bubble. The aftermath hurt many and getting your 'retirement out of your home is now problematical.
On the matter of equity values and retirement. It's now a global market. The idea that Americans retiring would deflate that market are probably overstated.
12-30-2011 01:27 PM
According to the article, those under 50 have very little saved. The 35-50 category average was somewhere around 10-15 grand. Under 35 was basically zero. The scary part of all of this is the fact that with such a meager savings rate we're on the verge of decades long historically high unemployment numbers. With interest rates at virtually zero, very small savings rates, and meager SS considering inflation; it's likely people will work in years well north of normal retirement age. This puts a heavy burden on the 20 somethings trying to enter the job market. The only thing to correct these problems more than likely is time. We still have roughly 25% of homeowners under water on their mortgage. While the only rabbit left might be a healthy economy, I just don't see it in the near future. IMO, the only rabbit left is time. It's probably going to take a couple of decades to get rolling again.
12-30-2011 01:34 PM
Your article shows what they need. It doesn't show what they have. The article I read broke down the categories into age brackets. The article you linked to merely shows that 56% have 25 grand or less saved without breaking any of this into age brackets.
Once retirement savings is tapped, it matters very little if the stock market rallies 30% annually because those people that tapped their savings have spent the money and will not participate in the rally. The only way they participate now is if their home values start climbing significantly so they can use the equity as a credit card once again. I don't foresee this happening anytime soon.
12-30-2011 02:10 PM
inflows from younger workers will probably exceed outflows of bb gen.............most bb fit into a few categories..........first being successful with equity in other things or investments, either of which will be managed and not a grab bag overnight deal.........second being they had investments and 2008 wiped em out and that ship has sailed, thus no more effect............third being they were never in it...........second and third will work as long as they can and live off SS.........
as for equities..........used to be home gamers money, managed by big boys.........now its big boys money and they are managing it...........if you want to be a home gamer you have to learn their rules, or get out, because the roost is ruled by them and all they are doing is swapping wealth..........