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Contributor
WXRISK
Posts: 15
Registered: ‎04-22-2013
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WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

The big change in the forecast   has  to do with the dry 6 to 10 day forecast.  Things look much wetter ---  especially over the  WCB -- on all the weather models this morning .

Yesterday the weather models showed a new strong cold front moving into the Upper Plains and   Midwest  APRIL  30 - MAY 1.    This cold front  delayed the  warmer and drier  6-10 day    interval  for a day or two BUT the  warmer  drier pattern   was still there.


The WED morning weather models have now slow down   the  s cold front  and be cause they do so.. the models develop  andUpper Low   over the   WCB portion of the Midwest in the 6-10 day which ends up dropping significant rain over this area.

 

The 0Z   EUROPEAN   MODEL     has a  a large area  of 1-3"/ 25 to 75mm over 80% of the  WCB.

6Z   GFS    MODEL   RAINFALL FORECAST FOR 6-10 DAY 
note the   large area  of 1-3"/ 25 to 75mm over 80% of the  WCB
. http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/06/pcpsums/0120/GFS_06_opUS_PS_0240.png


The 11-15 day  is   NOT   as dry as it was yesterday. It is not as wet as the last several weeks have been but it's also not a completely dry looking map either.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,259
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

thank you for your reporting WXRISK!

 

ARE YOU ABLE TO PROVIDE LINK TO WEBSITE WHICH INCLUDES THESE 2-3 MODELS WHICH UPDATE TWICE/DAY for us who don't know where you obtain....or is it a product you have to subscirbe for?

 

thank you so much

Advisor
WCMO
Posts: 488
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

[ Edited ]

Here's one/two --

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/FireWx/extended.shtml

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,259
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

thx, WCMO

 

i think he might have a subscription

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,259
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

gfs is considerably wetter than NOAA

Frequent Contributor
kyjlong
Posts: 36
Registered: ‎05-12-2010
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Re: WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

Both are NOAA sites that don't have subscriptions-both opened OK for me.

Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 420
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
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Re: WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

WX, when I read your post yesterday, I thought, "what are you smoking?"

 

  Get up this morning and the local station just changed the forecast, from warm and dry to, warm, maybe some rain today(got a little last night) and rain chances Monday, Tues, Wed and then turning much below normal temps the end of next week.  Guess they got your memo. 

 

I haven't had good experiences with planting corn into ground that the temps drop right after planting.   But it would be great to get a window to get fertilizer on.  Zero days so far of any field work of any kind.  I really can't remember that happening before, but trusting my memory is not always a good thing.

 

I am beginning to wonder after watching this year after year, if the grain markets just don't sell off every year at this time, because so many trade the seasonals. 

So. IA
Contributor
WXRISK
Posts: 15
Registered: ‎04-22-2013
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Re: WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

JEC22..


  the thing is  WEATHER  is NOT   based on POPULAR   opinion. ...  and    following ANYTHYING  the weather channel says

is   always  going to be  really   a bad thing to do .

Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 220
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
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Re: WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

Where I live NE Wisconsin.  Compaction is a real problem in Spring.  Go in the field too early and pay the price all year.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,259
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

wx,

if there is any way you could post a link to where u get maps/data......be much appreciated!

 

thanks