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WXRISK
Posts: 15
Registered: ‎04-22-2013
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WARMER? yes DRIER ? maybe not

folks it appears that some forecasters are either NOT looking at ALL the Model data OR are also "trading their weather forecast".


For example... the GFS Model from early Monday Morning ( the 0z run) and the Monday afternoon run ( the 12z run)   do seem to be  drier over alot of the Plains and Midwest.    Not 100% dry but substantially drier in the 6-10 day and in the 11-15 day.

Midday GFS run at 6-10 day  12zGFS 6-10 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST

 

BUT.. the Monday Midday GFS ensemble mean     (an average of 21 GFS Models)    were MUCH wetter ...wow... notr the large area of 0.75 to 1.50' rains over eastern TX ARK MO eastern IA ILL IND OH KY TN.
12Z GFS ENSEMBLE RAINFALL


in the 11-15 day the Midday GFS does APPEAR to be drier with some rains over the OK and western TX and much of the Midwest dry.   12z GFS 11-15 DAY RUN

 

BUT again the Midday GFS ensemble in the 11-15 day is wetter and a lot more wetter over the Delta- eastern Plains -- and WCB.   12z GFS ENSEMBLE run for 11-15 day rainfall