10-13-2011 07:41 AM - edited 10-13-2011 10:12 AM
At 10:09 AM:
So, it sounds like the early outlook was for a higher corn trade after another purchase of U.S. corn by China, and a lower soybean market as investors run for the hills on macroeconomic fears. So, that'd mean a higher corn trade and lower soybean trade, right? Well, just the opposite is happening so far: Soybeans have managed to scrape up into the black, while corn's still well into negative territory so far.
In early trading, nearby corn futures are 11 1/2 cents lower at $6.29 1/4 per bushel, while nearby wheat is 15 cents lower at $6.11 3/4. Nearby soybeans managed to slip into the black, trading 3/4 cent higher at $12.40 1/4 per bushel.
Well, Mike's out and about today again, so the B-Team's in his place today. Don't shoot the messenger -- shoot the guy who the messenger's standing in for today! Ha!
Anyway, what's everybody thinking about yesterday's USDA numbers? Did they nail it? Get it all wrong?
Now that the reports have come and gone, today's trade looks to keep slipping, at least at the start. Early calls for the commodities are corn 6-9 lower, soybeans 7-10 lower and wheat 3-6 lower.
A couple of things of note this morning: EU wheat looks fairly bearish for a while, and while Chinese traders think there's a lot of downside risk to U.S. soybeans, they're bullish on beans at home. Here's a little more on both those stories.
That leaves the usual belle of the ball, corn, without a ton of fresh news this morning. Guess it's all about the combines running these days, right?
I had a little over an inch and a quarter in my rain gauge here yesterday evening. Wow, did we need that. Anybody get completely rained out by that system yesterday? After the last couple weeks of almost summer temperatures, the air behind that system from yesterday is a heck of a lot more fall-like!
Hey, keep it between the lines today and stay safe out there! I'll try to keep things updated here! If I screw it up, we can always blame Marketeye, right?
10-13-2011 08:15 AM
"Chinese traders think there's a lot of downside risk to U.S. soybeans, they're bullish on beans at home."
Of course they would say that, make the US farmer believe that the prices are going down in the US so they sell, sell, sell and drive prices down and then they, China, can buy more beans cheaper. Traders, when asked, will always tell you what they want you to believe according to the direction they want the market to go and it doesn't matter if they are from China or the US.
Also they are speaking out of both sides of their mouth: US beans are going down, China's beans are going up." Really? What happened to the price of corn in the US when the price of corn went up in China??? They stopped exporting and started importing corn which helped to raise the price of corn worldwide.
But that is just my opinion. Gotta go fix the combine, replace a few bolts nothing serious, and get back harvesting corn. Beans are in the bin averaged 40-47 bushels but would have made over 50 if it hadn't froze and then got so dry. A lot of tiny beans and harvest loss at 8% moisture. First field of corn here went 165 bushels at 15%, that should be my poorest field since it was hurt the most by excessive moisture and frost. I am in west central Minnesota.
10-13-2011 10:17 AM
The only thing this report really said is that barring a World financial meltdown the lows are more than likely in. By not adjusting the yield as many analysts predicted, it pretty much took the carrot away that supply might get bigger. One also must compare usage from a year ago and compare it to current USDA predicted usage. We are supposedly going to use some 300 million bushels less corn this year than last year. Maybe they know something politically that I don't, but I don't see us using less corn. Considering the endusers of corn and their profitability, I'd venture to guess at these prices demand goes higher rather than lower. I've been doing quite a bit of research with regards to harvest basis. Locally, our harvest basis is the best in five years. I read the other day somewhere in Iowa harvest basis was only a nickel under. I've got to believe this is a rare occurrence. Basis is telling us one of two things. Either the corn isn't there or demand is a lot better than USDA lets on.
I don't like the vibe and potential direction we're headed with regards to ethanol considering the bill introduced in the House, but I also don't believe this do nothing Congress will pass anything until at least 2013 when a president is sworn into office.
10-13-2011 04:06 PM
"Either the corn isn't there, or demand is a lot better than USDA lets on."
There's gonna be a lot more of these realizations as we go through this winter.