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Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 218
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Was last year as bad as this year?

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Was last year as bad as this year?   I ask this in reference to NC corn price locally.  Last year, end of Aug, I was offered $7.50 for New crop 2011 corn.   Today, I was offered $7.77 for 2012 crop corn.  This is the same Coop.   I have received timely rains, crop should be good here.  I am from Northeast Wisconsin, one mile from the great colder,  Lake Mich.  I am hoping for 130 yields.

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 407
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
0

Re: Was last year as bad as this year?

No last year we were at 153 yield now were down to a 123. I think if you need some corn coverage they are given you a break today.
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,569
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Was last year as bad as this year?

Not overall, ------------------------------- Last year was more localized and avoided the central corn belt.

 

Two contrary things happened last year.  

 

1  the cash market reflected the loss of wheat crop here and in other portions of the world in 2011.  And by august the cash market started reflecting the loss of crops in south america.  ---Basis was in new territory

 

2.  Usda failed to recognize the wheat losses and overall crop losses in the southern US.  And for the most part failed to recognize South America's problems.  And with the corn belt coming in with some decent corn and beans ----got by with it for a while.  The market would have stayed moderate to lower had this year come in some what normal.

---------------------------------------------------------

 

thoughts

I question that we realize early enough how big the time delay built in to the usda reporting system.

 

In a fast change in corn supply,----say 2B surplus with a 3.4 to 5 billion drop in a  one to two year time frame,  does price do all the demand reduction, or does lack of available supply make the decision to go out of the market by an end user regardless of price.  Liike that alcohol plant that Smokey reported planning a shutdown for October; How much of that decision is price related and how much is just not enough supply to work effeciently in the next few months?  Would they stay in the game if the price were the same and supply in the southernarea were better--------like last year?

 

sw
Senior Contributor
clayton58
Posts: 334
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Was last year as bad as this year?

Our wheat yields were actually better this year.  and the dryland milois looking like we will at least run a combine through mosat fields.. Last year we harvested next ot no dryland milo.  So locally Id say last year was worse.  However, we probably have less subsoil moisture for seeding wheat this fall.

Senior Contributor
arnfarm735
Posts: 185
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
0

Re: Was last year as bad as this year?

EC NE

Last year on Aug. 8,  Jan. delivery corn was $6.63

This year on Aug. 8,  Jan. delivery corn was $7.87

2011 corn yields were 184 bu. per acre  (95% irrigated)              Gross per acre = $1220 / ac

2012 estimate at this time is 160 bu. per acre (95% irrigated)     Gross per acre = $1260 / ac

Don't think $40 per acre is going to cover the extra irrigation costs / ac.......

But at least we are going to have corn to harvest!!

Dads know a lot, but
Grandpas know everything
Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011
0

Re: Was last year as bad as this year?

The value of the dollar is 10-15% more. Keep your eye on it for the big move up. I just think the market is waiting for a clear dollar direction.
Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 218
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Re: Was last year as bad as this year?

I forgot about the dollar value.  Thanks,  Helps me level the playing field.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,569
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Was last year as bad as this year?

thanks fringeacres.

I forget that also-------Where would we be if we had seen stimulus this summer?

sw