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03-31-2017 09:36 AM - edited 03-31-2017 09:44 AM
03-31-2017 12:16 PM
Nice job Mike - I watched about the first 10 minutes and then the Tenderloin's I had on the grill were done - I didn't want to be like Tiger and lose my appetite ! lol
04-01-2017 04:25 AM - edited 04-01-2017 04:29 AM
Well I had some time to read the state by state data from USDA and I see a few interesting things.
1. While on ag.com we tend to here from the corn belt "I will stay with my rotation" and "The change is on the fringe"
USDA disagrees, While Corn acres go down in nearly every state, the majority of the usda reduction comes from the corn belt I states. Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota are 1.65 million of the 4 million acre reduction. Add Missouri and you have over half of all the reduction. Not what we here on ag.com.
2. Kansas is the only state increasing acres of corn in the midwest ----- I don't believe that. The state with higher average input costs and depleting water supply, and other than N Dakota, is suffering throught the worst of the BASIS problems. Pretty sure there is a switch of acres going on here as well.... nothing but land got cheaper.
3. The south shows the acre reductions in corn that were expected by cotton increases in Texas and Oklahoma.but not in Arkansas, yet the reports we get say cotton comes back to arkansas. Also beans are increased in Arkansas so Arkansas sees 303,000 acres of land planted that was not planted at all in 2016....... somehow I doubt that.... beans may be over reported here by 303K acres.
4 Indiana, also found 280,000 acres not planted last year (to c, b, cotton, milo or wht) . With no reduction planned for corn and a 350K increase in beans, something is over reported...Is that possible ECIN or Time?
5 Texas shows the massive swing to Cotton, and a 450K acre decline in corn, but increases planted acres by half a million.
I don't doubt the cotton number but where did the additional acres come from..... wheat? or beans? grain sorghum?
6 and for a smile ....... Kansas is planting 500,000 less acres of anything and texas is increasing acres by 500,000 of anything. That is definitely wrong.... The wind blows the other way.....
04-01-2017 08:13 AM
Well sw -- If it's the usda - anything is possible - lol
I did take a quick look at IN stat's - Wheat is down 70 and Hay is down 80 - Now I can believe the hay acres are down that much - as the hay market is terrible here -matter of fact -I had a neighbor call the day before - looking for a plow - to turn under some pasture and hay fields .
I'm sure that there was some prevented planting last year in the Southern part as it just would not stop raining there last spring .
280 sure seems like a lot though , but possible -
will be interesting to here from Time .
04-01-2017 10:57 AM
I guess I'd disagree with EC a little bit. The wheat acres are surely down, probably more than reported. The hay just has to be about unchanged. Anything left in hay is pretty pathetic corn/bean ground so no one would risk it to grow $3 corn or $8 beans. jmo
The bean acres being up is just hard to imagine being possible. No way corn goes down much in IN either. DC beans will be down huge if it is dry in July and beans are $8 as well. Just call me skeptical on that one.
Of course, in general, the report seems right on the money to me. Might be talking my position, Friday was a very good day for our farm. :-)
04-01-2017 12:46 PM - edited 04-01-2017 12:48 PM
Not bad for us either we had some beans priced and corn needs to come back to reality to keep the ship afloat.
A better day would be one that changes the basis , and that may be on the way.
Three inches of nice rains on the SW probably just propped up grain sorghum acres on dry land more than reported with wheat acres down and what is left in poor stands out west. The timely rain sure trimed some corn production costs....... Not having to prewater corn spring crops is always our first step to some cost control.
Not sure how kansas fails to plant 500,000 acres, but I do know that the cotton seed is coming into the southern counties in bigger numbers also, so that is some of what usda probably considers texas acres since the seed is coming from there.
Numbers confirm to me that the high plains is caught with limited choices ..............