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Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,243
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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We are officially IN.....the "Twilight Zone"

The "Twilight Zone"  ------ that region located between the time when the size of the crop has already been set and the date when the crops are actually planted.......... that's right....... we are there ............ at ............The "Twilight Zone" .

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,243
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: We are officially IN.....the "Twilight Zone"

We should listen for the ravens whisper of......... "can I still get some bean seed?"  or "corn in by June 1".  " where did all those ground piles go.. "  or 

 

Don't forget to increase fertilizer on corn.... more bushels on less acres isn't easy...... but we the american farmers will meet that prognostication made by ponsitony phil and usda..... one of which has never seen his shadow.  That is a goal to provide the king with imaginary clothing... so our king can be praised..

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,231
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: We are officially IN.....the "Twilight Zone"

I know some with full bins that missed the "rally that never happened" want to see this to bail them out and that`s perfectly understandable.  But a rally later in the summer when the calendar is too late is a better one.  If the price really sucks now, there`s a chance some ground would go prevent plant or the towel otherwise thrown it, like buy broken mouth cows to run the summer on the cover crop.   But a rally now will get everyone pepped up to hook  2 tractors on the planter and drag it across the field ..and it might turn out 200 bushel or a gentleman`s 180, adding to the carryout.

Advisor
Posts: 650
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: We are officially IN.....the "Twilight Zone"

We have indeed a chance for some volatility.  The grain analysts dream of the uncertainty they can talk into, the grain holders slobber over another rally to miss and the insurance guys start stopping off for a double worrying about payouts this fall.  Everyone is happy.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 900
Registered: ‎01-03-2015
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Re: We are officially IN.....the "Twilight Zone"

[ Edited ]

So how do we change ?

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,243
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: We are officially IN.....the "Twilight Zone"

How do we change.....?       Ihtractortherap.......   assuming you are a We producers,  We have options.

 

1.  we need to apply some critical thinking and education to the things we listen to.  Lets raise the level of sophistication in the information we process.  report and discuss.  And move on to the new high speed trading world we are living in...... which has very little to do with the opinions from the "floor" and much more to do with international news, currency trade, political positioning and weather world wide.  We had guys who were into a large variety of those issues and it seems like we have bored many off the discussions.  We had great folks in the industry giving us a chance to see the picture from in a different perspective.  Like Ray J.,  who got some barbs for being the enemy, but he was big enough to look past those and give us perspective.

 

2. For a easy and poor choice, We can download the usda monthly report which tells us everything we need to know about marketing including the price range we should, according to usda, expect and be comfortable with.  In this case we bypass the ag.com middle man ---- especiallly if that is expected by the readers.  If that is all we see in a marketing site it is a dead place to spend our time.  In this case we are just selling crop...... and if your lucky enough to live in a grain deficit area with normally small or positive basis,,,, it is good enough.

Especially if you are one who thinks your not getting anything out of this marketing page..... but will think this until you ask a few questions.   A lot of the readers seem to desire this but stay on the marketing page to criticise those who do a better job of marketing.

 

3.  We can pay for something better............. I read Times website and I get a lot from it i can apply to my circumstances, it is worth the fee.  Scott Shellady is insitefull.  I follow 2 different FCStone guys (They have my hedging accounts).  I like to read Alan Kluis though his concentration does not always fit our marketing locations.

 

4.  We can be much more honest with each other and ourselves.   Because to develop a real marketing strategy there are a lot of variables and between me and myself 45 years ago the marketing strategy is very different..... in the early 70's with a total cash flow budget of less than 100k I was small enough to market my whole corn crop two states away to get $0.90 per bushel bonus over the freight.... (Texas isn't all that far.)  But now that we are producing in much larger volumes that option isn't there... other options are.

We have to try to understand each other and know that we are just going to gain ideas..... not necessarily answers.  I have met friends on here that farm in very different circumstances than I do and I have found that I cannot do what they do exactly,  but I want to know what they think and why ---- I learn something every time and apply parts of it to what I do.

Too many want to apply the enemy status to everyone that is different than they are...... or can't get along without pulling out the tape measure so see whose got the bigger ____ or older, or easier, or ........... I get caught in it as well and get bitter at the desire of small producers to look down their nose at others.  The size of the check is not important, the profit margin is.

too bad because diversity of thought to marketers (or farmers for that matter) is like hybridization of the gene pool...... 

But if your farming more acres, your the enemy those guys we cheer to fail.   ---I have never seen one of those comments removed, but they limit discussion and participation much more than political opinion ever has......... Like those who complain about the misrepresentation of usda reports......... they just don't have anything to add to a website, so no discussion.

 

 

5.  Marketing strategy is developed not bought...... soy roy,,,,,, comes to mind.  And there is good insight from traders who don't produce.  They chart, they study trends, and they listen to farmers.  Notice how we lost them when we stopped sharing information.  This storm weekend was an easy pick for a trader.  A little weather consiousness this spring, starting with "wind & Fire" was important to the futures, at least for a day or two, but will change the market discussion in way more than wheat........ we need the traffic of information and discussion without the judgement of "on topic" or not.....or the negativity of "your just trying to move the market"  

 

6  Lets actually discuss our marketing plans and how we approach marketing..... like we want to learn something from each other without playing semantic games.  Like the snarky "that's not hedging, that's speculation"....  like one is good and the other is evil.          It really limits the information I am willing to share...  I am willing to live with the "Iowa" bias and willing to share personal information and ............ am discouraged that no one was willing to try the wheat market last week after i pointed it out with two days to get positions in place.  

    

7.  Maybe we need to limit participation to those with "skin in the game".  Or just those who live in Iowa.

 

----------------------------------------------------------

 

 

I miss Kraft-T,  he hasn't been on since 2014.  And that may be health related.

I kudoed his entries 30 times over the years and seldom saw things the same way he did.  But he was sincere in our disagreement and willing to explain why.... I learned from him.  That was worth my time and maybe.......his.

 

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,353
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: We are officially IN.....the "Twilight Zone"

[ Edited ]

Very good post SW...

Going along with the thought of "change"....I happened to be doing some "out of the box" reading on the web...I've been wanting something to

let me know when there is a "big story".....which can impact markets...not always ag markets but maybe others.........

I happened to go to AP's........I figured that they would be good...or they used to be, there was AP and UPI.

anyhow, here is something "interesting"....when in the twilight zone....things may change a bit.....or at least things are a bit different.

I found this little write up, and it's "DATA" service to be somewhat interesting......will give you an idea of what we are up against.

 

www.insights.ap.org/industry-trends/how-news-can-help-data-scientists-predict-the-future

 

 

 

BUT....i'm wondering........could all of this be that simple ?  Had we been fallowing the wx info.....maybe we would have figured out we

should have got ourselves "positioned' in the market.........or maybe "draw a line in the sand" and get into "the game", and then

roll up when we see a nice increase, I guess that perhaps would be a bit of "maxing" the price you get.

 

I don't know........i'm still am "learning"..........I hope I live long enough to "know".....rather than constantly learning !

Senior Advisor
Posts: 17,748
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: We are officially IN.....the "Twilight Zone"

Elcheapo, once you quit learning you as old as you are ever going to get.

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,374
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: We are officially IN.....the "Twilight Zone"

I think this will be appropriate here.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVSRm80WzZk