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02-19-2017 03:37 PM
So far we`ve had a pretty mild winter, I`ve listened to Mike Hoffman on USFR predict week after week "below normal temps and above normal precip for the next 3 months"...we haven`t seen that. I can count the below 0º on one hand, we had one morning -27º (which is usually normal) , the precip fell mostly as rain...so maybe if it was snow we would`ve had a lot.
Sounds like we are going to take out the 1976, five day string of above 50º in February. Now I know that correlation is not causation, but I looked at the 1976 nat corn yield and it was below trend.
Mike Hoffman touched a little that he missed the drought busting California rains which might`ve given us this unexpected milder winter.
This fall I watched the animals, the squirrels and deer and they were calling for a mild winter. It doesn`t always work or I don`t read the signs correctly, but so far it`s the animals 1 and Mike Hoffman 0
02-19-2017 06:49 PM
Well all I know is spring started today ! Speed weeks - lol Even if it was one day late - that beats that D--m ground hog !
But really here - The Sandhills were late headed South - Then the Geese were in Dec. Now in the past 5 days the Sandies are headed back North - The true sign has yet showed up here = the buzzards ! They can not chew off frozen meat from the road kill - has to be --- unfroze ! AND that's NOT fake news either - lol
BA - Don't forget the sunscreens !
02-19-2017 07:41 PM
I figure the other shoe will drop any time now. This weather is very unusual. I've gotten most of my new garage wired while working in shirt sleeves. But I'm afraid some bushes are budding and fear that it could be bad news for fruit trees this year.
It's a long time before we can usually expect frost-free days.
02-19-2017 08:29 PM
at meeting climatologist was saying yes, warm now....but he said wait 10 days....which will be about a week or less....return to winter,
cold temps and snow....thought at least a good ice storm or a heavy snow event or two........
i guess there is a low setting up in the SE, which will continue the drought, we have a lot of traffic coming from the west,
so it will get stopped about okla, so they might catch up with some water (at least western 1/2), then up and over and give
the western corn belt a drink.
in this pattern, he is calling for "above normal" severe weather this spring, and thinks this will be a record year for tornado's
possibility the eastern corn belt could have a problem this year
ill be watching some of the data to see if he is onto something.
also, seems the short range "experimental" models are working good, 80% or better, but the long long term stuff, is still having
some problems.....he had a good laugh when the nws says "equal chances" of something happening.
02-19-2017 10:16 PM
Ken, I don`t wear sunscreen, it would mess up my George Hamilton I think around here the ground hog wouldn`t have seen his shadow Feb 2.
The California heavy rains might be the signal of a weather cycle change, I see Arkansas is dry, which is usually what Ioway gets a couple months later. Saw Geese booking north all day, they`re probably jumping the gun a little The Weather Channel 15 day has us in the 60s until Thursday then 40`s, Friday looks rainy/snowy high 20`s but remainder of 15 day in the mid 30s. Almost done calving, beautiful weather, didn`t really need the barn..maybe last 1/3 will need shut in barn and heat lamps
I recollect a weatherman, Earl Finkle on with Orion Samuelson on USFR in the 80s, that guy was a sorcerer, just spot on with weekly forecast and absolutely nailed a 90 day forecast, I miss him. I`m guessing about `82, we had one of those rainy plant in early June springs (none of us overpowered back then) and Earl told us exactly that would happen a month ahead, then each painful weekly reminder. Dad and I didn`t like the message, but it was good to have the heads up and the word when the forecast turned drier.
Last few years we haven`t had "run to the cellar" weather for awhile, so I suppose this might be the spring when our luck changes. We haven`t had the good old fashion thunderstorm so much, it just gets the pump primed and dumps 3", then dumps 5" then 2" then a inch then 4" then drizzles right up until winter. And 100º days are very rare, I`m thinking it was `13 we got 13" of snow May 2, then 100º on May 14th ...what you didn`t get planted by May 16th didn`t get planted for a month or longer.
02-20-2017 04:51 AM
Nice winter weather never goes unpunished.
We're headed into state tournament season in MN.
Real wrestling, boys/girls hockey, boys/girls basketball, etc.
Don't put the snow moving equipment away just yet.
02-20-2017 06:26 AM - edited 02-20-2017 06:27 AM
That's what I like about these sites - you can learn something - sometimes - Like on this post by 76 --- they have Real wrestling ! I didn't know they had the WWE in there schools up there !
02-20-2017 06:58 AM - edited 02-20-2017 07:25 AM
This morning Iowa broke a record for warmest overnight low. Been a long time since we have a warm summer here, many like myself have mostly forgot what they are really like. Chart makes it looks like we are in a long term cooling trend. Probably explains yield trends. Elwyn says more big yields ahead. Did any call for this warm of Feb. last fall?