01-20-2013 06:27 PM
I thought I was the only one doing this!! But apparently everyone else is too: futures first, basis later.
It seems that I can't come up with an original thought in this game it seems and I thought I was doing something unique. Maybe everyone is feeling like they can produce a big crop cause 07 was the last year that looked remotely poor in my province.
Snow melted up here, then covered up.. wheat looks just as great as it did in the fall.
01-20-2013 06:52 PM
Ya, sorry, in Ontario.
From the people I got to talk to: a guy who works at Cargill, another guy at a commodity group, the provincial extension specialist, neighbours, and some conference attendants.
Where are you hobby? Kansas? Don't think this mess will be over by 214, hobby? We just off an 82bpa WW crop here (an on trend yield); maybe we are all short sighted with the weather?
01-20-2013 07:27 PM
Some places in the HRW belt, you wouldn't get that 82 B/A if you added the last 2 years together. Probably 3 years if we wait and see what '13 brings.
01-20-2013 09:58 PM
This does sound like something the Cargill guy and the commodity broker might be saying. And if we see corn turn back to the sub 5 range they will be right. But I don't see loosing these pricing opportunities for a while. If we see corn acres jump that high we are going to see wheat acres go down. I think anything two years out is too risky.
01-21-2013 06:53 AM
Gonna be some sick hearts when the funds jump in and run the board up and basis drops to negative $2.00 again...
01-21-2013 07:13 AM
That's why we have the futures board. Gives you an opportunity to reclaim revenue lost. If it is used correctly.