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10-31-2013 09:26 AM
An optimist assumes that the USDA was correct and that new crop prices will be lousy.
A pessimist assume that the USDA is wrong and that the crop size itself will be lousy with better prices
Or does an optimist assume prices will be high because of the lousy crop.
Or does a pessimist assume we have a lousy crop and low prices?
Sometimes it is just so confusing. It must be the age thingy.
Solved! Go to Solution.
10-31-2013 01:04 PM
I think it depends if you are a producer or a trader. If you are a producer, you want the prices to move up. If you are a trader, you just want prices to move. I am a producer. Unfortunately, I am one of the producers that has some lousy soybean yields this year. The corn isn't too bad, but still short of what it takes to turn a good profit. Every time somebody gets on here and spouts off about their huge yield, or how gigantic this crop and carryout will be, it makes me rather irratable. I don't think that makes me an optimist or a pessimist. It makes me a grouchy old curmudgeon.
10-31-2013 01:46 PM - edited 10-31-2013 01:54 PM
i'm a lover, i'm i fighter, i'm a Yamaha rider - anyone else have that bumper sticker back in the day?
i'm a realist, truth seeker, trader, mkt scientist, methodical researcher - with a natural science background......no eye rolling
seriously, though, the only thing I can come up with for the expected larger bean yields is farmer survey error to USDA? i.e. they ask y'all something about expected yield - do pod counts, etc. on Aug/Sep reports.
the main thing being heard is "better than expected" yields w/ beans...USDA expects some pessimism and they account for it ( y'all tend towards pessimism on yield so as to not be too disappointed if it is bad - normal human psychology) - I understand this.
so if enough of the survey-ees underestimated to a larger degree - than USDA's norm = bigger crop.
what are your thoughts?
10-31-2013 02:42 PM
Kraft, an optimist assumes the usda will publish accurate projections.
An optimist assumes theusda will make an effort to reconcile those projections to accurate harvest data.
An optimist assumes there is a way to survive a lousy crop.
A pessimist doesn't have the stomach for farming.
An optimist assumes Kraft knew how to spell pessimist.
10-31-2013 03:53 PM
As an optimist, I assume that the USDA is overestimating yields and that everyone but me will have lousy yields so I can sell my bumper crop for high prices. I then set that fantasy aside and try to determine what the real facts are or will be when all the data is in. I determine a range of probabilities that makes sense to me and try to make certain that if we hit anywhere from the center to the the bottom of that range, I have a strategy to optimize my business, and a plan B or C in case the black swan shows up. Then I make sure to thank our Lord each day for his blessings and ask that he watch over us which obviously does more good than all of the other stuff.
10-31-2013 04:05 PM
I want trending markets and the trend is your friend. Just a trader/broker and would like to see the grains close 15 min. before a USDA report and open 15 min after the report is isuued. Brokers cant read the report with one eye anjd watch the market go up and down before they can react with the other eye. Livestock reports/livestock markets are closed and cant even trade the report until Monday's.
I do know I'm not a Chicago Cub fan. 104 years would kill me early too. But am a White Sox, Bears, Bulls and Blackhawk fan.
10-31-2013 04:43 PM
I`m a Realist. The purpose of the USDA and their comic book reports is to basically help the buyers, "to hell with the farmer, he can take care of himself". The USDA pulls "400 million bushels" out when they need to, much like the local convenience store has a "take a penny, leave a penny" dish to make the books balance.
A report is to beat down enough farmers confidence that they will not be inclined to store too many bushels. The USDA makes sure that the grain flows to endusers with no "bridging" ...we`d truthfully be better off without them.
But we`re stuck with them and enough believe the reports that they sort of "become true" by consensus. If enough people believe that pigs can fly and if no one demands to see a flying pig and those that say "pigs can fly" are believed, then on some level...By God, Pigs can fly!
But all that said, I am also a optimist, because I believe that whatever level that prices go to, I can be the low cost producer. We have nothing to fear but fear itself
10-31-2013 06:49 PM
What are you ? or i should say -- What am I ? Well I hate to say this - but I guess I'll come out of the closet -- I'm a -- a --a Well dang it -- I'm a Lesbo - yes ECI - is a Lesbo - Trapped in a mans body -- lmao
Sorry -- couldn't help myself