06-09-2013 09:31 PM - edited 06-09-2013 09:32 PM
What do I think?
The cbot is not about commodities, it is all about making money, has nothing to do with setting a price of a raw farm product. It has been corrupted by that Chitown mob.
The proof is in the "basis"
06-09-2013 09:51 PM
I don't know about the coming week, but the coming 60-90 days is going to depend on whether or not the USDA bean ( and corn) counters were right in March, and we really did have close to half the 2012 harvested corn left in bins and grain elevators.
That is the $9-10 , or $4-5, question on corn.
Corn went from a bid of $7.60 to the lower $6 something, and even with thousands of acres that will never raise a kernal of corn, we still have not made it back, although we are only a hard limit up move away as of now.
Something to think about.
I sure don't know where this thing ends up going.
06-09-2013 10:02 PM
FWIW: I see corn rallying early in the week, with a Wed. report that cuts acreage and yields and provides a secondary bump. Then the drier, warmer weather will prevail and profit-taking sets in to the close the week out.
For soybeans, South America's strikes cause China ro come into the U.S. market in a big way, adding to the tight stocks story. Then, the market will start to see farmers get the corn crop planted and believe fewer bean acres. A Wed. Report could be bearish and the bean market will struggle, unless Thursday's export sales inject another juicy bump.
Wheat will chop, but eventually follow corn.
You asked and there is my opinion. Just some thoughts.
06-09-2013 10:18 PM - edited 06-09-2013 10:20 PM
thanks you guys, thought our open lower tonight could be engineering????
Hobby--knew you'd tell it like it is---will cbot ever HAVE to catch up, perhaps is a Q. seems like basis overall has become stronger to Jul corn since Apr lows.
red--agreed--Corn has demonstrated they don't any longer need reports to go limit.
Mike, thanks for chiming in at this late hour...don't let them boys keep ya up! you almost sound bullish
just seems - like jennys pointed out in another thread, maybe things are "beared out" for a while.
i've got a possible sell signal on the front bean-corn spread chart (on the daily)---could mean beans are flat for a while --corn rallies.....could mean corn edges up beans fade tad.....not a tremendous confidance on signal, but i'm tracking.
06-09-2013 10:24 PM
It will be June 10th in less than 2 hrs. water is standing and or running out of these fields, most that count are north of hwy 30 in Iowa. they are past out of time for anything but sweet corn before frost. the corn thing is a done deal. This isn't as computer game that can back up a move or two.
The insurance is no good after 10 days past the June 1 normal plant date.
The bean thing is approaching the same deal ... June 15th. Yields reduced no matter what...period.
06-09-2013 10:30 PM
How about this forecast for Britt Iowa (right in the heart of the problem) how much drying planting weather do you see ?
06-09-2013 10:41 PM - edited 06-09-2013 10:43 PM
have to admit --seeing your pic of a barron field in IA Jul 10th is a strange thing and can tempt me into "backyarditis"......we just have to all "keep" our heads while the "establishment" figures out how much actual real estate and by how much, tot prod is cut, out of the 30-35 mil possible affected.
06-10-2013 06:08 AM
Well...long term the pophecy of a days wages for a loaf of bread comes to mind for price direction. We have a collosal disconnection between the boots on the ground (farmers) and price setters (CBOT). From the local towncrier in WC Indiana and their, MO, IA Minn., WI and IL Crop tour last week. WE...... (WC Indiana) are the garden spot of the cornbelt!!! Now we do have our problems, namely it is June 10th the bulk of the crop went in on a 3 day no rain window in early May. Notice I said no rain, not... fit to plant. Fortunately we recieved some after rains in the .50 to .75 inch range to help with all of the problems associated with wet planting. Sidressing is coming to a close, and spraying is ahead of the weeds. Then last night the predicted .25" rain turned into 2.75". Now we have ponding and most certainly nitrogen leaching, with 90 degree temps on the horizen and more rain. I feel your pain farmers that are facing PP, but crop insurance is still whole for this year, and if you did not take it out, you have bigger cahones than I have. Good luck, stay safe, the fat lady ain't even put her makeup on yet for this crop, but she did sing in the shower! LOL... Oh... by the way. PEAK CORN!!!! That ones for you MT!!!
06-10-2013 06:29 AM
Not you to Brother Hoosier ! Your not falling for that peak corn crap to are you : ) I have seen on the local TV you have been getting ALOT of rain on your side of the state , Looks like it was Times --time last night - If he lives where I think he lives they are under a Flood Warning this morning from that rain them dang guys from Iowa and MO sent over here - I don't know about you but they are starting to pizzz me off trying to take us down with them ! What did we do to them ? other than IU beating the chit out of them last winter -- Oh well -- have a good one over there !